Mistakes? I think so. How many?

Bona · #1 07-08-2007, 04:04 PM

UTG+1 had joined the table 5 hands ago. No read at all.
CO had just posted behind. No history on him either.

Preflop- I didn't see 3 betting as a value bet and I didn't think I was going to run anybody out with it. I know it is debatable and many of you would raise it. Maybe correctly. What say you?

The biggest question I have here though is how to discount my draws in the face of this action. I felt like K's were clean outs all the way because of my A, but the 8's were likely a problem. And depending on how I count the eights I may not have had drawing odds a couple of times. Or is the pot big enough and the draw close enough to peel anyway?

If you fold it anywhere. Where?

By the river, missing my draw, I felt there was ~99-100% chance I was beat in about 2 places. Even a huge pot wasn't that big. Anybody disagree? Anybody call the river?

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, CO (poster) calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO raises, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+1 3-bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP2 calls, CO raises, Hero calls, UTG+1 3-bets, MP2 calls, CO caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (30.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP2 folds, CO raises, Hero folds

Final Pot: 36.50 BB

that_guy_33 · #2 07-08-2007, 04:19 PM

You couldn't lay this down anywhere. I mean, if you could look ahead and known that it was going to be a cap-fest, maybe you don't get your odds, but each individual call was fine.

"I felt like my K's were clean outs"

I hope so considering that would give you the nuts... You are right about the possibility of your eights not being clean, but I don't think you can discount them enough to fold in any one spot.

Also, a river call is nutso after this action... Unless you have reads that these guys are both maniacs, I think even your 99% loss rate is very very generous...

Zeldark · #3 07-08-2007, 05:03 PM

At each individual decision you have no mistakes. When UTG+1 calls and CO caps it for you, you should recognize that this may become a very expensive draw. When it's 2 back to you on the turn you likely should consider that it'll be capped before the street is over. Since they're giving max action already, your implied odds drop to being equal to the pot odds. You may not have the odds anymore to continue if you discount them. There may be fewer Kings and 8s in the deck than you might think.

I would make an evaluation on the turn as to the likelyhood that the 8s would be good, the odds that Kings and/or 8s are in our opponents hands, and if you wanted to invest another 4 BB based on that.

Edit to answer your questions:
I fold on the turn when I think it very well could be 4 bets back to me. The second diamond reduces the value of the draw, as (un)likely as it is.
Also the river is an easy fold. It's 2 bets to you, it'll likely be another 2 after you call. Don't dump another 4BB into this hand. The chances of them both capping every street with something that you beat is even less likely than the odds that you gave of winning that hand.

3-betting to isolate I could see happening if you thought it'd actually get the job done and leave you HU. at 25/50¢ I'm not sure that'd actually work. You also didn't give us any reads on the PFR to further affect this decision. I think the cold-call is fine here.

If it's a 14.5BB pot you're assuming that it gets capped. You are putting in 4 bets out of 30.5. If you're gunning for just kings that's 4 outs and should have about 10.5:1 odds.
30.5:4 = 7.625:1 < 10.5:1. Insufficient odds if you count all 4 Kings as outs. Under your assumptions this is a fold.

JJack · #4 07-08-2007, 06:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If it's a 14.5BB pot you're assuming that it gets capped. You are putting in 4 bets out of 30.5. If you're gunning for just kings that's 4 outs and should have about 10.5:1 odds.
30.5:4 = 7.625:1 < 10.5:1. Insufficient odds if you count all 4 Kings as outs. Under your assumptions this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If u exept that will be cap at turn shouldn't you count just opponents BB (you add also your 4 BB)?
so then will be:
(30.5-4):4 = 6.6:1 < 10.5:1

KitCloudkicker · #5 07-08-2007, 05:07 PM

consider a 3 bet PF. no other possible errors.

TarHeel100 · #6 07-08-2007, 05:17 PM

Preflop, I don't mind the call since you aren't suited and we don't have a read on MP1 yet.

Flop, I'm calling as well becuase you are getting the odds w/ 7 outs.

Turn: At this point, I think you can toss your Ace and Queen outs out the window. You are going to need a King to win this. 4 clean outs and you are getting you are getting 9.25:1 odds to cold call again. As crazy as these guys are going, your implied odds are most likely enough to warrant calling again. In a large pot, if it's close, I will err on the side of staying in and counting on the implied odds to make up the difference.