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#41
11-06-2007, 04:31 PM
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Re: I really suck with getting money from fish
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm pretty much speachless. [/ QUOTE ] Why? You don't think playing practically any 2 against this guy in position 125 BB deep will be profitable? [/ QUOTE ] If we first investigate our flush value. The chance of any of the other players having a higher xxdd-combo preflop is 20%. This will mean that when we hit a flush we're just about never up against a lower flush, but about 15% or something like that we're up against a higher flush. We'll flop a flush very rarely. When we flop a fd we'll almost never have aditional value, like overs, gut-shots etc. So the times we flop a fd we can't take much heat, calling a psb-ish flopbet will probably not even have much value. And obv we'll not flop a fd very often. We have no pair value and about none straight value. If we hit 2-pair (which we do rarely) 62 will only make very vulnerable 2-pairs. When we hit trips (again not often) we might end up with a kicker problem. This hand just doesn't have much value. Our preflop equity will obviously blow, even vs random-ish hands. And it seems you guys severely overestimates our implied odds. This hand is junk and calling it just because one guy that has limped is 40/10 sucks. I mean sure he's bad, but not at all awfull. Etc. 
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#42
11-06-2007, 04:31 PM
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Re: I really suck with getting money from fish
minraise! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
I like the limp and I play like 20/16. Look for chances to play pots against people who suck! for those who say "clear fold preflop" would you complete this from the sb in this spot?
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#43
11-06-2007, 04:34 PM
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Re: I really suck with getting money from fish
[ QUOTE ]
why don't we have good IO's [/ QUOTE ] I think you are overestimating your implied odds here. If we had a somewhat strong hand we would be iso raising and auto c betting most flops expecting this villain to fold a ton. If this is the case why do we suddenly think villain is going to go crazy in a limped pot in the off chance that you actually make a strong hand with 62s.
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#44
11-06-2007, 04:35 PM
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Re: I really suck with getting money from fish
[ QUOTE ]
How is pf bad? He's playing against fish who will call too much and will pay off when he hits a big hand. I was reading NLTAP last night and they said in this situation you could play almost any two cards here because of the huge implied odds. [/ QUOTE ] Just because villain calls too much doesn't mean he'll always flop something. Like everybody else he'll miss almost 70% of the flops. And even though he's bad he'll obv not call down with any pair the remaining 30%. And then factor in we hit the flop very rarely.
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#45
11-06-2007, 04:37 PM
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Re: I really suck with getting money from fish
[ QUOTE ]
why do we suddenly think villain is going to go crazy in a limped pot in the off chance that you actually make a strong hand with 62s. [/ QUOTE ] I wrote a whole bunch of things, but this is the only thing that needs to be said.
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#47
11-06-2007, 04:55 PM
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Re: I really suck with getting money from fish
[ QUOTE ]
I think you are overestimating your implied odds here. If we had a somewhat strong hand we would be iso raising and auto c betting most flops expecting this villain to fold a ton. If this is the case why do we suddenly think villain is going to go crazy in a limped pot in the off chance that you actually make a strong hand with 62s. [/ QUOTE ] This is a good point that I hadn't really thought about. I do agree that some are over-estimating our implied odds, but I'd still be willing to bet the limp is +EV even if only marginally so.
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#49
11-06-2007, 05:24 PM
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Re: I really suck with getting money from fish
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Wtf? Preflop is really bad. [/ QUOTE ] It's not great, but it's still almost certainly +EV w/ the 40/10 guy limping up front. [/ QUOTE ] Not at all... look at the spot he is in here. What is a better board for his hand than this one? 662? Definitely bad pf.
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#50
11-06-2007, 05:46 PM
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Re: I really suck with getting money from fish
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Wtf? Preflop is really bad. [/ QUOTE ] It's not great, but it's still almost certainly +EV w/ the 40/10 guy limping up front. [/ QUOTE ] Not at all... look at the spot he is in here. What is a better board for his hand than this one? 662? Definitely bad pf. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, this is a great board for our hand, which is why I'm fistpump shoving. PF is fine because against donkeys baby flushes are the nuts.
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