Picking off a C-bet, how much to bet on turn?

[MikeyPatriot]

Villain is 30/8/4 over 60+ hands. C-bets a majority of the time when he raises PF. How much do you bet here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($99.50)
SB ($115.75)
BB ($115.90)
UTG ($102.05)
MP ($224.74)
CO ($114.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $3</font>, Hero calls $3, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($7.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">CO bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($17.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???

[fadedstar]

If you think you have some fold equity here vs this guy, I would go with $14. If called, I'm not putting any more $ in this pot, of course.

.fs.

[sixhigh]

I'd make it 14, and expect to have the best hand most of the time. He might have an overpair and be scared, you just hit trips, but it's way more likely he has overcards. If he doesn't fold, check river or fold to any serious bet.

[checkraiseTHIS]

Is raising the flop out of the question?

[tkkjsoup]

My default is 2/3 psb but as I type this I'm having trouble articulating why.

We want hands like 44, 55 and 77 to fold and we want any two broadway cards to call. But these two types of villain holdings call for different types of bets.

Here's the best argument I can come up with: since both hands like 55 and hands like AK are among his most likely holdings here, we have to bet enough to avoid the greater evil of allowing 55 to stay in. In other words, we bet enough to avoid the disaster of losing the pot to 55 when we have position. A bigger bet gives up some EV against AK, but we give up less than we win because he has 6 outs.

I guess the best reason to bet 2/3 psb here is that the pot has decent size and we are happy to take it down now?

[sixhigh]

[ QUOTE ]
Is raising the flop out of the question?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends. If villain does frequently fire again at the turn, it might be correct. But if he shuts down at the turn most of the time (when he has nothing), calling seems to be better. Because in this case we can safely fold the turn when he bets again. Plus, we get a chance to spike our 2-outer in case he has a hand.

[MikeyPatriot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is raising the flop out of the question?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends. If villain does frequently fire again at the turn, it might be correct. But if he shuts down at the turn most of the time (when he has nothing), calling seems to be better. Because in this case we can safely fold the turn when he bets again. Plus, we get a chance to spike our 2-outer in case he has a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty much my thinking during the hand. We could raise, but if he reraises or calls we're probably done with the hand. Calling allows us to see what he does on the turn without risking as much.

[sourbeaver]

The flop raise I was going to suggest (15) gives him roughly the same odds as he priced himself in with his bet, which is ok if he has 2 overcards.

Still, waiting for the turn is tricky because

1. He might fire a second barrel
2. Many turn cards could seemingly help him out (J,Q,K,A)
3. You might get check-raised

I'm not sure as to what I like best here. It depends on likelihood of villain 2-barreling with air and likelihood of him calling a turn bet w a medium PP.

EDIT: ok after thought, I prefer your line, which is the call bluff. It lowers your risk while letting you see what villain will do on the turn. You don't have to bet automatically when he checks to you, but given this turn card and villain, I would. Make it 12 or so.

[leatherass]

POT IT.

[Dan Bitel]

I bet $11 or $12 here. I cant see a decent reason to bet more.

I also dont like raising flop, just b/c no1 likes double barrelling