Razz - give up on 5th or 6th?

[roggles]

Sorry for kind of uninformative title. No real reads except early limper is solid. Should I fold 6th or possibly fifth here?

Razz ($2/$4), Ante $0,40, Bring-In $0,50 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___folds
Seat 2: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 7: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds

4th Street - (5.90 SB)

Seat 4: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (3.95 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (5.95 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

River - (7.95 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___checks
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks

Total pot: (7.95 BB - $31,80)

[Chip753]

Considering that he is solid these are the percentages:

On VSt:
dead cards: 78TJQQ
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
A837K 60.44% 360,177 4,953
(8-8-)78T 39.56% 234,870 4,953

On VISt:
dead cards: 78TJQQ
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
A837K 56.37% 335,451 5,485
(6-6-)78T 43.63% 259,064 5,485

IMO (but I am more than a newbie so wait for better opinions) it is a sure fold on VISt. About VSt I tried some simulations and you have always a +EV so call is good.

[Chip753]

I beg your pardon but I committed a mistake in posting percentages. Obviously the opinion is the same.

On VSt:
dead cards: 78TJQQ
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
A837K 56.37% 335,451 5,485
(6-6-)78T 43.63% 259,064 5,485

On VISt:
dead cards: 8TJQQ
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
A837KA 26.87% 157,102 8,178
(6-6-)78T3 73.13% 434,720 8,178

[RustyBrooks]

Your simulation shows he has 56% equity on 6th, but he should fold? Huh?

I could never bring myself to fold 5th, right or not, I think. 6th I don't think I fold either. 7th is obviously a fold if he bets.

I'm not sure what to make of his line on 6th... is that a "please fold" or a "I have a crappy 87, let's see if you have better?" Would you ever (just) call 6th with 7? I have a hard time justifying raising 6th but it might have worked.

What do you think about betting 7th? I don't think he'll fold an 8 but what if he was stealing with a 9 and decided it was good enough to call on 3rd? Still might not fold. You just need him to fold 1 time in 8 though.

[Chip753]

About VSt I wrote it is definitively a call (he has a +EV).

About VISt I think it is a fold cause the imagine of the villain and his beahviour on VSt in which he doesn't improve and the hero neither: if his bet was a value bet, after that he knew that Hero had something so, why a bet on VISt against an A?
For this reason I don't see a raise on VISt, even as a value bet. If it was LAG probably this was the correct move but with a tight-solid why don't we give him credit for a good hand?

[*TT*]

question: villain's 6th street line is kind of odd, often times I see the villain check this street unless he feels he is one pip behind/still ahead. Did the villain pause at all before betting? Do you think he was wondering if you paired? Your board is better than his and you likely hold a better hand unless you paired at this point so either the villain took a stab to see where you are or he cannot read hands at all.

Now I am not recommending you do this, but what do you think would have happened if you raised 6th street? I am only asking because it may help determine the villains psyche for future hands but this hand itself was played correct on your end.

[RustyBrooks]

My instinct would be to raise here, also, because WHO THE HELL DOES HE THINK HE IS RAISING MY BOARD. This works out for me almost none of the time, though, because at 1/2 more often than not, he's betting an 87, I won't improve, and he won't fold. Too many people bet their own hand and don't consider their opponents.

If he's actually a decent player I love a raise immensely. If it doesn't work out, that might be good for your image. If you don't raise 6th, a bluff on 7th might be called for.

However, if he has A2378 or A2478 he might be thinking... I *might* have the best hand and if not I've got a pretty decent redraw so I'll bet and see what happens. In a case like this he is not folding to a raise, and probably not folding 7th.

I've raised in spots like this sometimes and except when I make my hand and win, it's been wrong pretty much all the time. It's worked out for me a few times in tournaments, where people will sometimes actually fold hands.

[*TT*]

Rusty - raising this board is usually suicide. I asked about his actions so we can develop a better understanding of the villain on future hands, if the villain didn't pair he is no better than 50/50 more often than not for improving on the river, and he is never folding unless he paired 2x and is firing a bluff. Thats why I asked about the timing of his bet, trying to see if we can determine if the villain thinks about his actions or if they are impulsive; allowing us to exploit this tendency in the future.

[RustyBrooks]

Oh, I agree. It's never, ever worked for me, and I don't do it. But it seems like such a great move, you know? It's nearly impossible to push someone off a hand in razz. Even if he's paired his 2 he'll call here some of the time.

When reading Sklansky's book that's the most unbelievable part to me, when he says something like "your opponent may throw away a 7 fearing he's beat". Yeah, right. Was that actually true at some point? That people folded 7s?

It does seem like a weird bet though. Whenever I see it, I'm like, does this guy see my soul or is he just like "I have an 87 omg bet bet"

[Wetdog]

Rusty, I'm pretty sure that Sklansky was talking about an expert opponent who would throw away a 7, reasoning that you would not bet or raise unless you had him beat. You don't find hardly any in 1/2.

I think 5th is a call, since he would need exactly A2 in the hole to be ahead. It may be a raise, but at 1/2 there are too many gambooolers who will go along hoping to catch good, which may be what is happening here. Sixth could go either way, I might lean toward fold.