River action? NLTRN

[PrimordialAA]

Well from my point of view, what pays off a raise here on the river EXCEPT an 8? The river is such a scary card that alot of raises are going to get credit for being the hands I mentioned above IMO. I mean making it 300 MAY... MAY get paid off by what... a 6 with a strong kicker and the 8... I dont think you ever get paid off worse than that... ever... and I also don't think thats a HUGE part of his range, and you put yourself in a very tough river spot if he shoves only his 400ish left

[Indiana]

[ QUOTE ]
Well from my point of view, what pays off a raise here on the river EXCEPT an 8? The river is such a scary card that alot of raises are going to get credit for being the hands I mentioned above IMO. I mean making it 300 MAY... MAY get paid off by what... a 6 with a strong kicker and the 8... I dont think you ever get paid off worse than that... ever... and I also don't think thats a HUGE part of his range, and you put yourself in a very tough river spot if he shoves only his 400ish left

[/ QUOTE ]

donkeys "need to call", they call all kinds of stuff. Also given the action its not likely that he reships you. I think his 100 bet on the end is exactly what it looks like, some weak two pair hand that he badly wants to get to showdown with. He will call with worse, believe me.

Let's hear what cwar says, he's obv better than me at cards.

Indy

[cwar]

Well Primordial's read is that the player has been playing kind of tight and as much as Id like the entire world to be loose and fishy it doesnt really apply here, I think its very unlikely you get paid by anything worse than an 8 by raising and him having an 8 is pretty unlikely given his line. Furthermore any raise pretty much pot commits you in a pot odds sense so when your wrong you risk more than the 300-500 your raising. I will say given his line I think its very likely we have to the best hand but this is a case where thats not enough to raise.

[People_Mover]

I make it 375 and call a shove cause I like to gambool

[alavet]

i miniraise this river
i am a bit nitty though

turn is ok

[ChicagoRy]

I think I agree with Indy here.

It's not like he's being super aggressive here, the guy flat called the flop, bet under 1/2 pot on turn and is betting under 1/4 on the river.

When I was moving up and found myself in these sorts of spots I'd often raise 2.5x with certain stack sizes. It was obviously transparent to make this kind of a thin value raise, but transparency is more than ok, in fact it's probably best, when dealing with bad players.

To the hand, it's probably fairly close, but what % of the time do you think villain calls or shoves with a better hand when you raise Primo?

[PrimordialAA]

Personally, I think we're getting called by only an 8 that we are beating. So considering how he played the hand, making the 8 very unlikely, I don't think we are getting called when we are ahead alot here... at all. I also know he is shipping almost any hand that is beating us here, straight, FH, trips, or the flush. I think he bet/folds the 6 to a reraise, so although I think the 6 could be a decent part of his range here as played, I don't think he pays it off on the river unless it's a strong 6.

I just don't see how he is calling behind enough of the time to make up for the fact that we are letting him double each time he is beating us as we are committing ourselves. Immediately after the hand I thought I had played it a bit too scared and should have raised, but looking back on it I really don't think your getting a ton of value by putting in a raise here.

[ChicagoRy]

Wait, so he'll shove a fairly wide range of strong hands here but he will only call with an 8?

This doesn't fit a realistic player in the 110s IMO.

[PrimordialAA]

what else do you think he calls here? 63? 45? Like given the flop what kind of hands do you think he is gonna call the river with knowing he has been playing pretty tight. And given my image and play so far yes, im sure he would shove a straight, FH, flush or trips for value given a weak-ish reraise

[ChicagoRy]

If he's so tight to where he will fold a 6 he is probably not shoving a straight over a raise here, he is probably calling.

If he's truly this tight, just call the river bet, but if it's just a "folds to a lot of cbets, hasn't put up much aggression yet, isn't a station" type player that probably needs a pair or great combo draw to continue in hands, then I would probably make a thin value raise.

Also, the actual results of the hand contradict your read and reasoning that this is such a tight player and he's showing such aggression in this hand. He had a gutshot draw with two crappy overcards that are not good x% of the time they hit. The river hit, and 2/3 of his speculative hand range turned out to be no good.

Maybe he's "tight/weak" but that doesn't mean this guy won't call pretty light. The fact that you've been running him over suggests he's more apt to call with his single pair hands in this hand.

Sorry, kind of rambling here, but I guess I'd have to see the past hand history to really be confident in my opinion here, I do believe it's a pretty close decision, but I really lean towards a thin value raise being correct vs most players here.