|
|
#141
08-14-2007, 06:21 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
Theory-question=
Lets assume im up 10 buyins too much according to what I should have won. It wouldn't be wise to move up, right? Because the change you should be running 'bad' in the near future is greater, or is this not correct? Would it even be wise to move down, untill I lost 10-Sklansky-buyins at a lower level? I have a strong feeling this is all incorrect, but I cant see why. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] 
|
|
#143
08-14-2007, 09:13 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
Hi, thanks for the great program. I play on Prima network and they don't always show the mucked cards at showdown. Does it skew the luck graph since I get to see my opponent's cards every time I lose, but I do not see them always when I win. How do you deal with these sites where they don't always show the mucked cards for some reason ?
|
|
#144
08-18-2007, 06:03 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
[ QUOTE ]
Theory-question= Lets assume im up 10 buyins too much according to what I should have won. It wouldn't be wise to move up, right? Because the change you should be running 'bad' in the near future is greater, or is this not correct? Would it even be wise to move down, untill I lost 10-Sklansky-buyins at a lower level? I have a strong feeling this is all incorrect, but I cant see why. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Look up "gambler's fallacy" in wikipedia
|
|
#145
08-18-2007, 08:15 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Theory-question= Lets assume im up 10 buyins too much according to what I should have won. It wouldn't be wise to move up, right? Because the change you should be running 'bad' in the near future is greater, or is this not correct? Would it even be wise to move down, untill I lost 10-Sklansky-buyins at a lower level? I have a strong feeling this is all incorrect, but I cant see why. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Look up "gambler's fallacy" in wikipedia [/ QUOTE ] Nice, ty.
|
|
#146
08-18-2007, 08:33 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
[ QUOTE ]
Hi, thanks for the great program. I play on Prima network and they don't always show the mucked cards at showdown. Does it skew the luck graph since I get to see my opponent's cards every time I lose, but I do not see them always when I win. How do you deal with these sites where they don't always show the mucked cards for some reason ? [/ QUOTE ] I've spent quite a bit of time looking at this on various sites - the numbers for these sites are simply unreliable as far as all-in luck goes.
|
|
#147
08-19-2007, 02:13 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Theory-question= Lets assume im up 10 buyins too much according to what I should have won. It wouldn't be wise to move up, right? Because the change you should be running 'bad' in the near future is greater, or is this not correct? Would it even be wise to move down, untill I lost 10-Sklansky-buyins at a lower level? I have a strong feeling this is all incorrect, but I cant see why. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Look up "gambler's fallacy" in wikipedia [/ QUOTE ] Nice, ty. [/ QUOTE ] So this means im not about to go on a sick run of cards ? ! WTF ! [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]
|
|
#148
08-20-2007, 10:26 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
Hey Phil,
When PokerEV is calculating the the luck graph, does it take into account that your equity is cut down slightly because of the rake? If not, that could explain why a lot of people are supposedly running below expecation according to your program.
|
|
#149
08-20-2007, 10:40 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Help with Analysis, does this mean i suck or have just hit a bad r
Yes, the rake is included. If it wasn't, you'd quickly see huge divergence. It's kind of disgusting seeing what rake does to Sklansky bucks. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Again, I stress that you can verify any calculation. The numbers are all in the table on the analysis tab. As for people running bad - if you look at many of the graphs, you'll see that the first half of the graph, people run ahead of equity or on target quite often. This indicates to me that people are generally choosing to post a graph after a bad run. And there have been a handful of run good graphs posted. Also note that many are posting the wrong graph - the all-in luck graphs are the only ones you should use to measure luck. It's always possible that there's some error I and others haven't caught, but it seems unlikely at this stage. If you need more confidence in the results, look at your all in hands after a small session and see that each item adds up to what it should.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
