Blind battle vs TAG

[NinaWilliams]

Villian is 25/20, steals, iso raises, and resteals often. Plays pretty well.

Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6SB, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4BB, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6BB, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>,

[WalkUpCondo]

I'd check. I think stuff you're trying to get value from he will either cap preflop (big aces) or fold the river with. It's hard to see him having you beat here, but I think a large majority of his handrange is two overs on the flop w/ a club, which will fold (J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], so forth).

[mute]

[ QUOTE ]
It's hard to see him having you beat here

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, which is why I like a bet. It's not unreasonable, that AJ or AT will pay off occasionally. Seems like a win/breakeven situation to me.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

Super thin value bet and I think I like it. Based on your read this guy cant have 8x or Qx. And he mightve even check/raised the flop with 6x. So really on the river this guy's most likely hands are ace high or nothing. Ace high will sometimes call, hence the value bet. I love the spirit of this play. NH.

[Romulet]

Don't like the river bet by the sounds of the history between you guys you may get a sad call from ak aj k5 maybe but that's all you beat, check it and call?

[imitation]

Really dislike this bet, a good player who flops any part of this will check call you down, expecting you to keep betting hard after the 3-bet. Take the free show down. That being said river value bets have always been my failing point and I never have had a river agr above 1.5.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
Really dislike this bet, a good player who flops any part of this will check call you down, expecting you to keep betting hard after the 3-bet. Take the free show down. That being said river value bets have always been my failing point and I never have had a river agr above 1.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got the impression that the villain would check/raise the flop with close to any pair, which is why I like the hero's thin value play. (Many aggressive/fearless players play this way) If that is not the case then this bet is very likely going to fall in the -EV category. This is where knowing your opponent is crucial. If I was against a tag and I didnt know how he played then I wouldnt bet the river.

[TheWunderkind]

Yeah it pretty much depends on how you think villain would play a pair here &gt; vs me you should chk because i mix it up...so if your opponent is good and can change gears you should chk imho &gt; if hes so predictable that you can narrow his range down to that point that you beat more then 50% of his calling range then your bet is good

[Gurravasa]

I like that river bet. I think it have some value when villain calls Ax and Kx or even folds a low pair. Could he bluff c/r on river or be slowplaying? I doubt the latter but the first is not impossible. But if he c/r the river I would probably fold if I didn't strongly believe he was bluffing.

[jstill]

I actually think theres a fairly significant difference between making this thin value bet when u have Ac5x vs the non club Ax5x, theres twice as many combos of ace high hands that could have called looking for the 4 flush that mite pay off now when u dont have it. That difference could certainly be the difference between the bet being +EV (good 50% of the time ur called or more) or not.

Other than that it kind of comes down to recent metagame (u having bluffed recently or value betting a ton and him not showing down, or him tilting are all obviously better), his image of u (if he thinks very solid and he could pretty much always fold A hi here or 22 to ur 3rd barrel safely id pass up the marginal bet when u have the Ac), and his tendencies in this exact spot (blind battle where u 3bet preflop and he didnt cap). I think to say a 25/20 will auto cr the flop here with 6x is a bit hasty, those are pretty much my stats and while thats generally true of me in say a BB vs Button on CO steal its not necessarily true when uve shown more strength like this preflop.

Again its hard to imagine ur beat by alot (since 99+ probably value caps if ur 3betting most pairs, and Qx hands probably donk or cr the turn, or bet the river) but it depends what he can get to the river with that are worse (less when u have the Ac, altho I think 22-44 always see the river since u could be betting A hi no club for value/ a freeshowdown on the turn) and how often he ll feel compelled to show them down here vs u in a blind battle.

I think making thin value bets is good in general and makes people play worse against u for a couple of reasons (they cant peel the turn as liberally expecting u to check behind often, or call to fold UI since u wouldnt vb a worse hand than TP on the river in position, and generally just feel as though they are getting run over if they dont see ur cards so they make worse calls/ plays later on), but I think this spot is somewhat close/ dependent upon ur feel against villain. But Id always bet Ac8 or 77 here, so with Ac5 here is enough of his range that calls or raises worse hands? maybe i duno its close, I think id check behind if i thought he thought he could easily fold A hi here when u bet again or underpairs if u have a narrow 3betting range here preflop (that Q pretty much hit any unpaired hands ud 3bet preflop that arent A hi im guessing correct? and ud never bet A hi UI in position on the river?).