T8o poster hits SD on the river

HermannTL · #1 11-15-2007, 02:12 AM

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.05.
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (4 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls.

River: (9 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets, MP2 raises, Hero...

I had been watching the table (and you couldn't find a more passive bunch), but I just sat down with no relevant notes. I had seen several of the players before, with 150 hands on MP1, 25 each on UTG & BT, and zero on MP2.
UTG: 100/0/0.6 (No, that's not a typo, that's ATC.)
MP1: 25/0/0.23 (Likes Axs, saw AKs no PFR called UI to SD]
MP2: ??/?/?.??
BT: 48/0/0.33

So it's 12BB to me with one still to act and two to react. The only thing that can beat me is precisely KT and that is in everybody's range, but I can also split the pot. I'm inclined to 3-bet but maybe this is a better time to try for overcalls. If I raise the only one likely to cap is MP2.

Xylocain · #2 11-15-2007, 02:22 AM

meh, just get it in ... sometimes you lose, no biggie.

Harv72b · #3 11-15-2007, 02:24 AM

At higher stakes I'd be more inclined to call & hope for overcalls. Here, I just 3bet with the knowledge that anyone calling 2 is likely calling 3 as well.

Goodnews · #4 11-15-2007, 02:41 AM

grunch

3 bet if you think they are calling stations. If you think that any of the players left to act will overvalue their hand (two pair, another straight), and will 3 bet, then call with the intention of raising.

neurotiq · #5 11-15-2007, 04:24 AM

Tough one. I can see the merit in both calling and 3betting.

Nice hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

LukeSLTS · #6 11-15-2007, 10:02 AM

RAISE! Don't be afraid of the higher straight. There are plenty of other hands that could raise here on the river. Just push more money in and enjoy the EV+.

Sushiglutton · #7 11-15-2007, 10:05 AM

I go for over calls

Sushiglutton · #8 11-15-2007, 10:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I go for over calls

[/ QUOTE ]

MP2 was not one of the passive guys. 3-bet then.

maverickai · #9 11-15-2007, 10:54 AM

I would say you are huge favourite. Given that this kinda limits, pple will be overcalling for fun, I'm going to do some estimation if getting more overcallers is good for the river.

From Stove:
Board: 2d 4s Jd 9h Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.541% 19.02% 09.52% 243515 121854.50 { KdTd, KhTh, KsTs, QcTc, QdTd, Qc9c, Tc8c, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQh, KdQs, KhQs, KcTh, KcTs, KdTh, KdTs, QhJs, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTh, QdTs, QhTs, Qc9d, Qc9h, Qc9s, Qd9h, Qd9s, Tc8d, Tc8h, Tc8s, Td8h, Td8s }
Hand 1: 71.459% 61.94% 09.52% 792937 121855.50 { Ts8h }

Let's say you raise, and everyone folded to your re-raise, and MP2 caps it, your EV = ((0.715*5)+(-4*0.285))= 2.44BB

************
Let's just say total of 3 players went to showdown, and only MP2 and you have a chance to win,
you win =((0.715*4)+(0.285*-2))= 2.29BB

************
Let's just say total of 4 players went to showdown, and only MP2 and you have a chance to win,
you win =((0.715*6)+(0.285*-2))= 3.72BB

With 4 players overcalling, you stand to lose least, and win most. So looks like calling is better, since at such limits, pple tend to make crying calls.

scpi10 · #10 11-15-2007, 11:56 AM

grunch

Hero raises. Anyone cold calliing 2, at this level, in this hand, will gladly call 3 so I think you should raise it.