Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar's 10k

[Crispy]

Does ZJ Fold QQ+ to turn c/r?? Does he bet the turn with a naked Q? These are probably the two most important questions. A lot of you say the minumum he gets it in here is with a set, i dunno if that is necessarily true. I could see him making a big raise on the turn with some sort of Q + hearts combo draw. I think probably the best line is leading out into a smart player because you give him a chance to bluff off his stack with all of his combo draws, but I would never fold after, unless river came 8 or Q or K, then I yell gayness.

[Crispy]

Also, what were the results?

[curtains]

Btw I like leading out the turn MUCH better than check calling the turn and leading the river. Leading out the turn is simply very believable, and we would very often do so if we made a huge hand, so it's much more difficult for Justin to play well. (For instance it makes perfect sense for us to simply bet out if we had KQ here, but it makes no sense to check call and then lead out the river.)

Check calling the turn and leading out the river makes us much less likely to have a huge hand IMO, because we have gone out of our way not to build a big pot.

[Requin]

PF I fold, flop I probably lead, anything but c/c turn seems bad, and I don't get why people want to lead the river. What's Z supposed to put you on.

[Ansky]

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Checking is bad because sometimes it will make him bet with a worse hand.


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FYP

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Checking is not the best b/c it is likely villian has a worse hand and you're giving him the opportunity to rep a very strong hand which kills your ability to shove or call a shove on the river.

Lead the turn.

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If you think he will bluff a lot.... THEN CALL.

[burningyen]

I'm confused by the consensus that pre-flop is ok.

Do we really care that much about pre-flop pot odds when we're deep? That seems like the same leak that causes so many people to bleed chips by limping too much in the SB.

Do we really think our pre-flop hand strength edge over ZJ's range outweighs ZJ's positional edge post-flop? When I think about situations where I have an edge OOP, it's when:

a) My hand and the pot are both big,
b) My opponent is on a narrow range,
c) I have a pair and the conditions are right for playing for set value, or
d) My opponent is just that much worse than me.

Here, we have a modest hand* with a lot behind, our opponent can have anything, we will flop middling hands or air (and no draw) too often and we're up against ZJ. (*I agree JTs is a good hand, but I think people are overestimating its value, especially under these conditions.)

So IMHO, fold > RR > call pre-flop. If we RR to like 40k and ZJ calls, we have a good size stack to CR semibluff the flop. If he 4-bets pre (which seems more likely than usual since our image is bad), then oh well.

[betgo]

I like a reraise to 40K too.

The problem with folding preflop is that ZJ tends to raise every hand anyway and here he is in CO with a very big stack on the bubble. Since ZJ is pretty much always raising, you are not going to be able to play many hands on the bubble if you fold every time he raises. JTs is a quality hand, and I wouldn't fold it here.

In this case, it seemed like OP apparently doubled up ZJ because he was "cold decked", not because he was outplayed.

It seems natural that the big stacks would battle on the bubble, and I don't think you should run away from it. Sometimes you will be the one to win a big pot and take a top place in the tournament.

[zizazziza]

does ZJ raise that much pf? I also thought we were going by the read that he is playing tight?

[betgo]

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does ZJ raise that much pf? I also thought we were going by the read that he is playing tight?

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Why wouldn't ZJ be raising any two in CO with a big stack on the bubble when OP maybe can't call with JTs? Also, I saw some story on NVG where Hellmuth said in the middle of a hand that ZJ was raising every hand, so I assumed that was how he played.



Hellmuth-Justin NVG thread

[PhatPots]

You should raise the turn and then check the river. Call a smallish bet. I think it would be bad to check-raise the turn and the fire big on the river especially if you aren't intending to call a raise. I check-raise the turn, define your hand. I say a raise of 100K. If the river bricks, then I go into check call mode.

You are really only losing to a set or a straight at this point. I suppose KQ is a possibility, but ZJ could have a hand like KK and might think that you will pay him off with something a lot weaker.


I disagree with a lot of ppl who say this is a fold preflop. You have a hand that has potential and you have a big stack.