NHL Sports Betting

[Bode Meahn]

Right warrant....

Today:

Ottawa Senators -210
Detroit Red Wings -130
Colorado Avalanche -140
Chicago Blackhawks +140

[Henry17]

The problem with creating a system starts with the fact you simply don't even understand how to test a system.

By picking every game and not having any weighting system you are creating too much noise. A system would have to be exceptionally good to be detectable given your testing methods. With the amount of noise you are creating it is a real possibility that even if you had a working system you'd reject it.

If you look at my method I pick every game then reject the weaker selections. Picking every game my record over the last 4 days is 13-10 which is awful in hockey. Based on that data I would reject my method.

My games get graded from 1-6 with 1 being the weakest. If we reject just all the 1s now my method is at 11-5. If we look only at the 4 or higher my method is at 4-1.

So had I tested my method using your testing system I would have rejected it. By removing the noise created by the weaker selections I realized that I should only bet 4s or higher and have been making money doing it for years.

[hedgie43]

[ QUOTE ]
my record over the last 4 days is 13-10 which is awful in hockey.

[/ QUOTE ]

And irrelevant.

[Henry17]

I realize when betting money lines record is not relevant but at this point I'm just trying to explain why he needs to not count every game

[Bode Meahn]

How are you distinguishing the 1 - 6 level of the game?

[Henry17]

I have my own system but I don't discuss picks or how to make picks. The point I was trying to make is that you have a design problem in your experiment. You can't test for something with that much noise. You need to either have no play as an option or you need to weight your picks.

[Bode Meahn]

Okay, after hours of working on the current seasons spreadsheet, we've been able to better figure out the profitable areas of our picking. Come next week we'll tweak our current status quo and begin backing down the amount of picks and bets we take each day (Henry17, you should be happy!).

We'll see how that continues to work out. Question, does anyone know a source other than local newspapers to see the starting goalies? What about day-to-day IR players?

[POlka]

http://goaliepost.com/

[Bode Meahn]

Anyone liking the Blackhawks tonight at +170 or better?

[Bode Meahn]

Dallas +120
Florida +115
St. Louis +125
Chicago - 125