UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79

[21times20]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, Chonan's been training up at Team Quest with Hendo and Sok, etc.

re: Overeem
He looked absolutely awful in his last fight against Sergei Kharitonov.

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thanks, i forgot i actually watched this fight, i seem to remember overeem looking like he wanted to quit like a minute in

and yeah viscant, like performify said you are making a ton of assumptions, i don't see how you can come to the conclusion that someone is garbage on the ground just because he's knocked everyone he's fought out, i mean for all i know he really could be terrible like you say, but i am willing to admit that i haven't seen anything in his fights that would allow me to come up with any kind of informed opinions on his ground game

[dankhank]

i made my first ever ufc bet the other day based on my own capping: houston alexander. i watched silva struggle against a slow, plodding standup fighter in thomas drwal, and then i re-watched houston's fights against jardine and sakara (it didn't take long).

am i wrong, or does alexander have one of the most efficient looking stances in mma? i'm not sure how it is for kicking, but from a punching perspective, dude seems to have his hands, shoulders, and head nicely aligned. i'm not sure how well he moves his head around though - it might not be too hard for an opponent to land one on that big dome.

[MikeyPatriot]

re: Overeem/Kharitonov

If you want to know what kind of fighter Overeem is, watch this fight. It's a prototypical Overeem fight. Look good for two minutes, gas, get pounded on, fall down.

[List]

I doubt Silva is stuborn enough to stand and trade with Alexander for long. The fight will probably look more like the Drwal fight, where he shot in numerous times, even though he was doing fine in the standup. I don't think his takedowns looked that great, but if Alexander doesn't finish quickly, or have good takedown defense, it's going to the ground, and there's no way Alexander's better there. It's also not that clear he has much of an advantage standing. I would guess it's around 55/45 Silva, though in reality it's much more lopsided for one fighter.

[Viscant]

Yes, I am making some assumptions, but for the most part they're pretty safe.
Like, Thiago on top for example. He's a legit BJJ black belt with great grappling credentials. Do you REALLY think Houston is going to win this fight if Thiago winds up on top of him? I mean, yeah I respect Houston's strength and his wrestling (which is why I don't want Thiago to pull guard), but with Thiago on top, this doesn't end well for Houston. It just doesn't. Yeah, I fully admit I don't know very much about Houston's BJJ skill, but assuming that Thiago's is better is not a stretch. Not even a little bit.

Also questioning Houston's cardio is still pretty valid, IMO. I'm not basing it off of him sucking wind after the Sakara fight (although to be honest that's kind of a red flag), I'm basing it off him not having the experience here yet. I can name you 10+ guys I've met and worked out with personally who have the best gym cardio in the world and still gas repeatedly under fight conditions (like I said, I can name a lot, but the one I'm thinking of right now is Vernon White), so while I understand that you've seen Houston have some great workouts, his in fight cardio is still under review.


I think if we take the names out of this, it becomes a lot closer than you're making it out to be. On paper we have two Muay Thai strikers who fall into clinches because of how they throw. I think the likelihood of a clinch in this fight is very very high and I think we both agree on that (you think that Thiago will be against the fence for sure, I disagree). I think that from this position, the man with the better BJJ has a huge advantage because should the fight end on the ground, Thiago certainly has the advantage, in experience and in credentials, and I think we can both agree on that.

I respect your opinion and a lot of what you said in your post was true. There's a lot I DON'T know about Houston. But from what I DO know about Thiago, I think the assumptions I made are at least fair and lead to this fight being between a 50/50 to 60/40 split, leading to me placing my bet on Thiago.

We'll see tomorrow I suppose and if I'm wrong and Houston completely manhandles Thiago in the clinch or if the fight goes to the ground and Houston overpowers him, then I'll be the first to step up and admit that I was wrong. I just see too many doubts in this fight and too much left to be answered for Houston at this time.

[dlorc]

Just going to post my picks here so I can see how I did.

W * Michael Bisping (205) vs. Rashad Evans (206)
W * Houston Alexander (203) vs. Thiago Silva (204)
NA * Joe Doerksen (185.5) vs. Ed Herman (186)
* Ryo Chonan (169.5) vs. Karo Parisyan (170) W
* Frankie Edgar (154) vs. Spencer Fisher (154.5) W
* Thiago Alves (171) vs. Chris Lytle (170.5) W
W * Joe Lauzon (155) vs. Jason Reinhardt (155)
NA * Marcus Aurelio (156) vs. Luke Caudillo (155.5)
W * Akihiro Gono (169) vs. Tamdan McCrory (170)

[Performify]

picking winners without lines or units is pretty much worthless, for what its worth...

[dlorc]

I'm not interested in posting my analysis publically yet.
Once I have a decent private track record I may start posting lines.

[POlka]

Does anyone have video footage of Alexander beside the two Ufc fights? I honestly cant see how you all can make a fair line on this fight with the given Infomation.

[trixtrix]

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There's a lot I DON'T know about Houston. But from what I DO know about Thiago, I think the assumptions I made are at least fair and lead to this fight being between a 50/50 to 60/40 split, leading to me placing my bet on Thiago.


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this is retarded, if you think the fight is 60/40 why would you state that there is big value in +150?