$55 99 UTG vs. PFR with a low mono flop - C/R?

AliasMrJones · #1 03-11-2006, 10:13 PM

Villain was 25%/16%/0.4

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t60 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG+1 (t2360)
MP1 (t1834)
MP2 (t4540)
MP3 (t2050)
CO (t2145)
Button (t1616)
SB (t2020)
BB (t2095)
AliasMrJones (t1340)

Preflop: AliasMrJones is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
AliasMrJones calls t60, 5 folds, Button raises to t145, 2 folds, AliasMrJones calls t85.

Flop: (t380) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
AliasMrJones checks, Button bets t306, AliasMrJones is all-in.

Comments?

pineapple888 · #2 03-12-2006, 04:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain was 25%/16%/0.4

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t60 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG+1 (t2360)
MP1 (t1834)
MP2 (t4540)
MP3 (t2050)
CO (t2145)
Button (t1616)
SB (t2020)
BB (t2095)
AliasMrJones (t1340)

Preflop: AliasMrJones is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
AliasMrJones calls t60, 5 folds, Button raises to t145, 2 folds, AliasMrJones calls t85.

Flop: (t380) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
AliasMrJones checks, Button bets t306, AliasMrJones is all-in.

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF is up with Villain's preflop raise? Looks like he's trying to keep you in, then he panicks when the suited flop falls. I just let it go this early. If it's a steal, oh well.

Bigwig · #3 03-12-2006, 04:09 AM

Depending on stuff, I might just fold preflop. And I don't like the check raise on the flop. Maybe you're good, maybe not. I dislike using stats postflop. Sure, he puts a lot of money in preflop, more than he should. But how does he act after the flop? I think you're in serious trouble here, most of the time. At best, and I mean AT BEST, you're slight favorite.

amak316 · #4 03-12-2006, 04:52 AM

I dont like this situation for the all in move. The tourney is very young, you have an overpair, but to me this is a borderline fold situation. The button raised small after a limper UTG, in my experience that means overpair. The board gave you an overpair but this isnt a good board really. You have no flush redraw and if he has as little as AK with one diamond he will likely call with about a 54% edge and good pot odds. Pushing is bad against his range in my opinion. id either smooth call and push the turn on a blank if you dont feel he has an overpair, because this move would give alot of cards in his range correct odds to fold. (The AK would no longer be a favorite). In my opinion fold the flop.

caretaker1 · #5 03-12-2006, 05:18 AM

I would let it go. Hate risking stack that early without being fairly sure where I'm at.

schwza · #6 03-12-2006, 01:14 PM

preflop is fine, i would check/fold the flop. the stacks are short enough that if villain has something like AxQd he's probably calling the push. so basically you're going to win the pot when villain has no diamond and does not have a big pair, get in some kind of race when he has a diamond but not an overpair, and be totally smoked when he has an overpair. i just don't think he has KxQx or whatever where's he's folding to the c/r often enough.

i dunno, i might be putting him on too narrow a range for a 16% pfr guy. do you remember the number of hands and during what stages of the stts? if that's all from 8-10 handed, for example, then he probably has junk like QxTd often that he will fold to the c/r, or 7x7x that will call it.

AliasMrJones · #7 03-12-2006, 03:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i dunno, i might be putting him on too narrow a range for a 16% pfr guy. do you remember the number of hands and during what stages of the stts? if that's all from 8-10 handed, for example, then he probably has junk like QxTd often that he will fold to the c/r, or 7x7x that will call it.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is from this STT only so it's all from 8-10 handed.