100NL AK hit hard

[Roger Mainfield]

Villian is unknown, how would you play this from here on? Try and get the money in, or call down?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (5 handed) Party Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($68.54)
Button ($204.43)
SB ($99)
BB ($240.97)
Hero ($140.73)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $4, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($12.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $22</font>

[Tanky]

3 Bet to 70, call shove. If he calls the 3 bet and checks the turn get it in.

[djshawk]

Pretty sick spot imo, you raise UTG and get CR on an AK flop which likely hit you hard. I think BB will have JJ/QT here way way more than he has AJ/KJ and I don't think he does this with Ax alone unless he's a total donk. I think I call the raise and go from there, I'd rather him put the money in the pot in this situation.

[Tanky]

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty sick spot imo, you raise UTG and get CR on an AK flop which likely hit you hard. I think BB will have JJ/QT here way way more than he has AJ/KJ and I don't think he does this with Ax alone unless he's a total donk. I think I call the raise and go from there, I'd rather him put the money in the pot in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good point, hero is either drawing to 4 outs, or villain is drawing to 2, giving you the mother of all WA/WB situations. So there is no massive benefit in raising.

But I slightly disagree with your point about hand ranges, JJ is less likely as you expect it to 3 bet preflop, QT is weaker than AJ KJ so i would weight the range towards, in order AJ JJ KJ QT - I think its a tough spot but i couldnt lay it down if a J doesnt show up on the turn or river.

[djshawk]

OK I agree JJ would normally 3 bet this pre, I still think QT is his most likely hand here though.

2 Aces, 2 Kings and a J are already out so from a combinatorics pov you've got 6 AJ and 3 JJ, 6 KJ. There are still 4 each of Q and T though giving 16 combos. So are beat here 19/31. Stricly speaking you could add in the 1 combo of AA and KK too but they are very very unlikely. Add in the fact some QT will get folded pre and JJ unlikely I think it makes it pretty close.

I'm not suggesting ever folding btw!