TOP2 river play?

[icheckcallu]

villain just sat so no read. Also I forgot to reload after losing 30bb ish.

I need help on my river play. we have about pot size left so are we shoving here? All visible draws hit.

Party Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 3 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $25.23
Hero (BB): $19.68
BTN: $61.37

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
BTN calls $0.25, SB calls $0.15, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.50</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, SB calls $2

Turn: ($7.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, SB calls $5

River: ($17.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $6.25</font>, HAHAHAHA CRY CRY CRY

[Spurious]

bet more on the flop
turn fine
river is call, but you'll lose most of the time

[bsball8806]

wp, call river and pray he has A 10. I might bet like 2.5 on the flop and like 5.75 on the turn, though

[You're No Daisy]

[ QUOTE ]
villain just sat so no read. Also I forgot to reload after losing 30bb ish.

I need help on my river play. we have about pot size left so are we shoving here? All visible draws hit.

Party Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 3 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $25.23
Hero (BB): $19.68
BTN: $61.37

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
BTN calls $0.25, SB calls $0.15, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.50</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, SB calls $2

Turn: ($7.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, SB calls $5

River: ($17.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $6.25</font>, HAHAHAHA CRY CRY CRY

[/ QUOTE ]
[censored]...but it's a call. He could have AT here just as easily as a flush.

AC

[stillnaive]

Damn near four to one to call.

As played, I can't imagine he's folding to a push, even with TPTK. Still, even if he's got the flush 70% of the time, EV=.30*(36.36)+.70*(6.43)
EV=+$6.407 for the push. If he has less than an 85% chance of having the flush, the push is still +EV. Any more and it's negative.

EV for the call is: EV=0.3*(29.93)+0.7*(-6.25), EV=+$4.604 assuming the same percentages. Call if you think he's got the flush less than 82% of the time.

IMO, I push because TPTK might take this line too.

[munkey]

bet more on the flop because its drawy and we have top2 so we want to start building the pot, turn is fine.

Call river -be glad he bet like a pussy -could be an Ax block or most likely the flush the way the hand went down but the river pot odds make it a call. 26% equity by quick math which I think we have vs his range though you will see a flush v. often.

I don't shove river the way the hand went, shoving the last bits of your stack when WA/WB is bad on the river IMHO when you got showdown value.

Notice how if we have a bigger pot earlier (play around with the bet sizes) especailly by the turn if we bet near pot on flop villan with a fdraw/Ax makes numerous mistakes and in fact we can bet the turn s.t. even if he hits in the river we can pay of a 1/2 river value bet and still make his turn call a -EV even on implied odds.