(razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th? - Page 2

tinkerman · #11 11-08-2007, 03:14 PM

I think I'd call for odds and he could have anything.

I think you could have just called on 3rd. Once you raised, it was correct to both a call on 4th and after that he may be gambling come any decent card.

I'm surprised considering his stack he didn't re-raise on 3rd if he had a made hand.

RustyBrooks · #12 11-08-2007, 03:17 PM

Yeah I re-raised out of habit there because I assumed that he was probably on a steal. I didn't start considering stack sizes until he called 4th.

Praxising · #13 11-08-2007, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
3. as soon as I saw that Phil Ivey quote in the FTP email, I knew Praxising would be using it in a posting soon. It really does not apply here, I don't think. Losing 2.1bb more would hurt but this isn't NLHE and he didn't just push all in.

[/ QUOTE ]His article wasn't about NLHE. Why does it apply here? Because all the talk here is about having the odds to call. The question you did not answer was: how did you feel when you saw the 4?

We do this and don't take into account the outcome. But in trny play the outcome matters a lot more then in a cash game. IMO - one last time - you should probably have folded 3rd, you should fold 5th. How did you feel when you saw the 4 and how did it turn out?

RustyBrooks · #14 11-08-2007, 04:57 PM

I should fold 3rd? That's insane.

How did I see when I saw the 4? like seeing a river. After he bet 5th he had 1bb left. I'm sorry, but this is all about odds.

If he has the absolute nightmare hand for me, like the worst possible hand that he could have, period, how am I doing? I'll lose 2/3 times.

So, 2/3 times I lose an extra 2bb. 1/3 times I gain the whole pot, about 6.8bb. I won't be in good shape if I lose, but I'm treading water and I need the chips. Yes, yes the chips I win are worth less than the ones I lose. But also there is a definite value in knocking out another player, since we're down to 12.

But this is actually the *worst case*. And far more commonly I'm looking at a coinflip, and once there's this much in the pot I flip every single time. If it's a coinflip, he's basically saying, here's your money back, now lets flip for 2bb plus a little extra dead money, and if I lose, I'm out of the tournament.

Also obviously I reserve the right to fold 6th, and he has no such luxury, really. So calling here I'm really only gambling 1bb some of the time, some of the time on 6th I'm gambling 1 more.

The outcome of this hand is immaterial to the question at hand. But I will say that, even given his actual hand I made the correct call on 5th.

RustyBrooks · #15 11-08-2007, 05:00 PM

In case it wasn't clear, the odds dictate I should call even if he has the WORST hand for me that he could have.

Praxising · #16 11-08-2007, 05:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I should fold 3rd? That's insane.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is it?
3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5___folds
Hero: A 3 4___raises
Seat 3: xx xx K___brings-in___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 9___folds
Seat 6: xx xx T___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 6___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 5___folds

You don't have a single card on the board and two of your 5s and a 6 are out. You are the third short-stack and you only really have a couple serious hands you can play. Seat 7 did not call the BI, he raised in the face of three hands with better cards showing. By your own admission, you were not thinking about his stack size. You have a lousy board, a raiser in front of you, no big stack to take chances with.

Yeah, you fold. I'd have folded.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, but this is all about odds.

If he has the absolute nightmare hand for me, like the worst possible hand that he could have, period, how am I doing? I'll lose 2/3 times.

[/ QUOTE ] Uh-huh. But in a tournament, you don't have time to find that theoretical winning time that is going to make up, in some very small way, for your two losses. And that winning one, whenever it is, will NOT make up for the equity you have in this tournament.

[ QUOTE ]
But also there is a definite value in knocking out another player, since we're down to 12.

[/ QUOTE ] Then you let the big stacks do that unless you have a very strong hand and you don't, regardless of it being three wheels.

[ QUOTE ]
But I will say that, even given his actual hand I made the correct call on 5th.

[/ QUOTE ]If it's all about odds, and you know how to calculate odds, and the outcome didn't matter, and you really believe this - why did you bother posting it in the first place?

Nevermind. This is your game. Go thou forth and conquer. I would be completely delighted to see you at the final table tonight with 7 other 2+2ers.

RustyBrooks · #17 11-08-2007, 05:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I should fold 3rd? That's insane.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is it?
3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

You don't have a single card on the board and two of your 5s and a 6 are out. You are the third short-stack and you only really have a couple serious hands you can play. Seat 7 did not call the BI, he raised in the face of three hands with better cards showing. By your own admission, you were not thinking about his stack size. You have a lousy board, a raiser in front of you, no big stack to take chances with.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that I don't have any of my pairs showing, and I do have some outs I need showing, devalues this hand considerably. However that just makes it a great hand instead of an absolutely awesome insta-shove hand. This guy is not in a great position to steal but I am betting he'd bet any 3 card 9 here. I probably would. Also, as I mentioned earlier, the previous hand he went nuts with a good looking board and a hidden pair - it's not beyond him to do so, obviously.

[ QUOTE ]
If it's all about odds, and you know how to calculate odds, and the outcome didn't matter, and you really believe this - why did you bother posting it in the first place?

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone who was railing asked me if I should have folded and I basically said "out of my dead cold hands you'll pry these cards". I posted here to see what other people thought about that. I probably should not moderate the thread so heavily, since my mind is pretty made up.

ChipsAhoya · #18 11-08-2007, 07:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I should fold 3rd? That's insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why on earth would you ever fold three wheel cards, heads-up, vs. a possible steal raise? With the exception of the dead cards, this is the best possible situation for you to be in, and you need to put the chips in.

The quote from the FTP book about folding A23 (which may or may not be great advice) was for a jammed pot, high variance, etc. Folding 3rd is just really, really bad.

How do we feel that we caught the 4? Disappointed, but still optimistic about our chances in the hand vs. a person who is known to play less than great hands.

-ChipsAhoya

mrmr · #19 11-09-2007, 08:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I should fold 3rd? That's insane.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is it?
3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5___folds
Hero: A 3 4___raises
Seat 3: xx xx K___brings-in___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 9___folds
Seat 6: xx xx T___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 6___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 5___folds

You don't have a single card on the board and two of your 5s and a 6 are out. You are the third short-stack and you only really have a couple serious hands you can play. Seat 7 did not call the BI, he raised in the face of three hands with better cards showing. By your own admission, you were not thinking about his stack size. You have a lousy board, a raiser in front of you, no big stack to take chances with.

Yeah, you fold. I'd have folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that you think this this starting hand should be folded does not mean that you have a "different" style than me (and all the other players who commented in this thread), but one that is equally good and valid and nothing is wrong or right because even Phil Ivey said poker is about feel. It has nothing to do with style. It means that in this particular case, you have a systematic leak in your game.

Of course, just because you think and/or write fold, doesn't mean you actually would fold if you were playing the hand -- none of us are perfect -- so it might not be as bad as it seems...

Praxising · #20 11-09-2007, 02:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that you think this this starting hand should be folded does not mean that you have a "different" style than me (and all the other players who commented in this thread), but one that is equally good and valid and nothing is wrong or right because even Phil Ivey said poker is about feel. It has nothing to do with style. It means that in this particular case, you have a systematic leak in your game.

[/ QUOTE ]
And just because you say this, doesn't make it true.

And true, this wasn't my hand and if it had been, I might have played it. But I doubt it. I fold this kind of hand in this situation in tournaments all the time.

You know, this specific issue is a debate among much better and more successful tournament players than we are, and there is no consensus.