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#21
11-07-2007, 11:24 AM
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I didn't mean in Baltimore. I just meant SU on a neutral field. I think the line should be closer to Balt -1 or -2. [/ QUOTE ] I make them even on a neutral field... so +4.5 is a great bet IMO. [/ QUOTE ] I still think it's even better than that. DVOA has the Bengals about .5 to 1 point better than the Ravens. MOV has the Bengals at about 2 points better. They've played 4 common teams, and the Bengals have played better against those teams on average, not to mention the victory the Bengals had over the Ravens in Cinci. But at least we agree +4.5 is a great line for us. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 
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#22
11-07-2007, 04:01 PM
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
OK, someone talk to me.
According to wagerline.com, 80% of the money is on the Bears at -3, which has moved to -3.5 at some sites. The Bears should not be getting favored on the road against almost anybody save for maybe the 49ers. When did people start deciding that this Bears team was good?
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#23
11-07-2007, 04:12 PM
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
I have decided to put 3u on Arizona at home simply because: "They have lost three in a row, and Detroit has won 3 in a row...the line opens as a pick'em, 80% on Detroit...and the line goes to Zona -1 right away, and then stays steady, even with all the Lions money."
Just a complete and total public fade.
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#24
11-07-2007, 04:17 PM
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
[ QUOTE ]
I have decided to put 3u on Arizona at home simply because: "They have lost three in a row, and Detroit has won 3 in a row...the line opens as a pick'em, 80% on Detroit...and the line goes to Zona -1 right away, and then stays steady, even with all the Lions money." Just a complete and total public fade. [/ QUOTE ] I still see it as a pick 'em on sportsinteraction. I, too, like the Cardinals here. DVOA has the Lions as being about a half point favorite on a neutral field. The public is enamored with the overperforming Lions, and the books know this.
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#25
11-07-2007, 04:40 PM
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
[ QUOTE ]
When did people start deciding that this Bears team was good? [/ QUOTE ] They are not. Cincy +4.5, SF +10 and Mia ML are my top plays this week. Oak +3, Ariz -1, and Clev +10 are my smaller plays. The only thing that worries me about Oakland is that there's been no market resistance whatsoever. I haven't actually bought Oak yet because of that. It makes me think that this isn't quite as strong of a play as I thought, so I'll wait and see what happens.
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#26
11-07-2007, 04:45 PM
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
[ QUOTE ]
The only thing that worries me about Oakland is that there's been no market resistance whatsoever. I haven't actually bought Oak yet because of that. It makes me think that this isn't quite as strong of a play as I thought, so I'll wait and see what happens. [/ QUOTE ] I'm an amateur at this and am going solely by numbers, so I don't understand the strategy here. Are you saying because the line moved a half point almost immediately that the books aren't trying to cajole people into betting the Bears?
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#27
11-07-2007, 06:35 PM
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
Late afternoon plays:
Raiders +3.5 (-105) Risk 2u to win 1.90u Ok, so let me get this straight. The Bears are a slightly better team than the Raiders. Maybe 1 to 1.5 points. So the line looks off by about 4 points. Also, the line moves so I can get the 3, the vig is only 5%, AND 80% of the public is on the Bears? Where do I sign? By the way, I fully expect to lose this bet despite KNOWING I'm on the right side because the game is sure to be fixed. 20-17 Raiders Cardinals PK (-110) Risk 2u to win 1.90u Fade the public (clap clap clapclapclap). Lions are slightly better than the Cardinals on a neutral field. Time to come back to Earth. 27-20 Cardinals Cowboys -2 (-115) Risk 1u to win .87u The Giants last 4 opponents. Jets, Falcons, 49ers, Dolphins. Well that was nice. Did you have fun in England, boys? Giants start off slow, and the game is never really close. Anyways, wasn't it about this time of the year that NY tanked last season? 35-24 Cowboys YTD: 0-0-0 +0u
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#29
11-07-2007, 07:08 PM
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
[ QUOTE ]
wasn't it about this time of the year that NY tanked last season? [/ QUOTE ] don't you mean, wasn't it the time of the year where half their offense and defense got injured all at once causing them to lose games they were favored to win?
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#30
11-07-2007, 07:13 PM
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] wasn't it about this time of the year that NY tanked last season? [/ QUOTE ] don't you mean, wasn't it the time of the year where half their offense and defense got injured all at once causing them to lose games they were favored to win? [/ QUOTE ] Actually, I meant, "I'm going to make a joke here that will be completely and totally irrelevant to the question at hand."
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