(razz) OK rip me a new one

[RustyBrooks]

Villain is unknown but I've played a few hands with him, many of them like this one where he limped in (essentially) last to act and I had nice cards down.

His play has been very loose, around 60% vpip but with little raising on 3rd.

On 4th I just want to see what happen. And yeah I'd probably raise here with about any 2 nice down cards as long as I didn't pair 4th. His 4th card is pretty bad and I think he might well have some junk in the hole so I think I'm ahead here some, behind some, but probably never totally dead.

I don't love the card I got on 5th but I'm almost certainly ahead now.

I check behind 6th because I don't think there's any way he folds, his current hand is better than mine, I have to catch beat him (lots of outs of course) and I think he'll call a bet on the end (and he can't outdraw me if I make a 9). I think I should have bet here since I have 18 outs to beat him.

On the end I am assuming he has J high some of the time, T high some of the time. I'd raise if I thought there was any chance he'd fold, but I don't think there is, so I guess I lean towards folding.

Anyone find a fold sooner here? Hate the raise on 4th, the bet on 5th or the check on 6th?

Razz ($0.50/$1), Ante $0.10, Bring-In $0.15 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.00 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in

4th Street - (1.60 SB)

Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises

5th Street - (2.80 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (4.80 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks

River - (4.80 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___???

[ceegee]

you know what you did wrong lol.

fold 4th
If you have to play the King up,
4th isn't a raise IMO. Call there
check 5th with villan fold the river. He has to have better than a king high. unless he paired his hole T? lol

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
On 4th I just want to see what happen. And yeah I'd probably raise here with about any 2 nice down cards as long as I didn't pair 4th. His 4th card is pretty bad and I think he might well have some junk in the hole so I think I'm ahead here some, behind some, but probably never totally dead.

I don't love the card I got on 5th but I'm almost certainly ahead now.

[/ QUOTE ]

play around with propokertools some. your reasoning is all messed up because you're clearly unaware of how good your hand is on both streets.

edit: you too ceegee, fourth is a call and fifth is a clear bet.

[ChipsAhoya]

[ QUOTE ]
play around with propokertools some. your reasoning is all messed up because you're clearly unaware of how good your hand is on both streets.

edit: you too ceegee, fourth is a call and fifth is a clear bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's funny is that so is 6th. All the dead twos make the drawing hand the favorite here. I don't know if this is the lowest bound, but any hand w/ 4 cards to a board lock is a favorite on 6th st. still, including QQ9876 < KK8765 or KKa234. your 9 draw is better than his made JT.

-ChipsAhoya

[RustyBrooks]

Via simulation: if he has anything at all (9 high) in the hole I'm barely ahead on 4th. If he has something like J 9- in the hole I'm ahead about 3:2. Not bad. I wouldn't expect too much worse. I would expect him to raise with total nonsensical crap but who knows. Lots of people rarely complete on 3rd. (In this session I got stung twice when multiple people in one hand limped with 3-to-a-wheel)

5th st is a surprise, I'm probably a 2:1 favorite against (9- 9-). Even if he has a miracle 34 in the hole I'm only a 3:2 dog. So yeah I think a bet is good there. Here's an interesting thing: because he has a J at best, drawing to a T (and thus needs 2 good cards if I catch) it doesn't matter if his range is 9- 9-, 7-7-, or even 5-5-, they all come out the same (2:1 in my favor). Only hand picked really bad hands (like 34, which is not only super low but also has 2 of my outs) make him a favorite. The results are a little polluted by the times he's paired his 2, but I'm still in the lead on 5th.

6th is pretty close. About 50/50

7th I consider raising only because he might fold T high. But I thought better of it and folded.

[RustyBrooks]

Hmm... Name a reasonable hand (hell, any hand) he could have JT high with that I'm a favorite to...
(aside from 89 where I have a 55:45 favorite)

Edit: of course there aren't any hands I'm a dog to either. Do you bet here if you know he'll call and you're unlikely to be ahead or behind?