$6.50 - Thinking past ICM

[Oasis88]

Hi all,

I am aware this may be interpreted as a simple ICM calculation but isn't villains calling range going to be huge? While this may still warrant a push, it just feels wrong to gamble. I just feel a little awkward when I have either a really big stack or a really short one. I much prefer to bully 2nd and 3rd place stacks on the bubble. Is this the wrong way to think?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t2865)
BB (t890)
UTG (t4700)
Button (t5045)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, hero cries

Thanks guys, hopefully you can shed some light on these types of situations. Particularly when I have a fragile stack myself and I have a bad hand and then confronted with a BvB situation against an even smaller stack where I just know he is going to be calling huge. ICM probably dictates a push in these situations but I just feel really awkward.

p.s. While I would like to have more examples, I am not referring specifically to this hand alone but this idea in general.

Hope you can help, thanks.

[sixfour]

I'm not sure that his calling range is really going to be that huge, he's still got 9 BB's left and isn't going to call a push that often as he's still got a bit of room to manoeuvre.

Why can't we just put in a standard raise here? I think a lot of villains at this level will simply go away as we're threatening his stack, but won't push unless they've got good cards themselves and then we can fold, still leaving us with around 2500 and still twice the shorty's stack.

[holy32]

tl;dr

looks like an easy push tho... ^^

edit: Okay, I felt bad and read it. Why would he be calling huge here ?? If anything he will be way tighter than normal, because he isn't that short and of course b/c of bubble.

[NeverTrust]

[ QUOTE ]

Why can't we just put in a standard raise here? I think a lot of villains at this level will simply go away as we're threatening his stack, but won't push unless they've got good cards themselves and then we can fold, still leaving us with around 2500 and still twice the shorty's stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

can u fold this when he pushes?

easy push imo

[malnek]

unknown villains wont be adjusting to how wide youre pushing here so ez shove

[Slim Pickens]

It is a simple SNGPT-type calculation. If the Villain's calling range is going to be huge, it dictates a fold.

{55+,A7o+,A3s+,KTo+,K8s+,QTs+} is +0.5%
{33+,A2+,K2+,Q6o+,Q3s+,J8o+,J6s+,T9o,T7s+,98s} is break-even

My guess is he doesn't call nearly wide enough not to push, but you were the one playing at his table, so you should have the most information.

[Oasis88]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would he be calling huge here ??

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he is far behind in chip count and probably knows he needs to double up to have a chance.

[TwistedEcho]

How is this thinking past ICM?

Use sngpt/wiz and just make his range as big as you think it is. That will tell you if its a push/fold (see slims post). I'm not sure where the 'past ICM' thinking is

[dave1mo]

Why would you ever need to "think past ICM" at the 6.50s?

[sence25]

he just wants to get more skilled, no reason to fool him.