Zeebo Theorem Hand - Page 2

good2cu · #11 05-26-2006, 03:35 PM

meh, I don't like it. If you have quads sure shove, but villian could easily have a 2 here. IMO shoving is the not the best way to get value out of wrose hands here either as he might call a pot size bet with ace high and not a shove.

good2cu · #12 05-26-2006, 03:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What about quad boards? What will people fold here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($46)
MP ($19.15)
Hero ($160.95)
SB ($62.15)
BB ($70.40)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, BB calls $6, UTG folds.

Flop: ($16.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero raises to $7, BB calls $5.

Turn: ($30.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $146.95 (All-In), BB calls $56.40 (All-In).

River: ($233.85) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $233.85

Results in white below: 
BB has 8d 8s (four of a kind, nines).
Hero has Ad Ah (four of a kind, nines).
Outcome: Hero wins $162.20. BB wins $71.65. 

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, people will almost always fold here without an ace. This has nothing to do with Zeboo's theorm. Example of Zebo therom:
I have 92o in BB limped to me, 500 effective stacks.

Flop J99.
I bet 12, MP calls.
Turn 9
I bet 40, MP calls.
river 2.
I bet 450, MP insta calls.

Sykes · #13 05-26-2006, 03:42 PM

What's the buy-in? The lower it is, the more Zeebo's theorem takes into effect that a 4 will always call and a 3 will call like 50% of the time.

At the higher buyin levels ($55+) against good players, I'm torn on this play because most good players will fold a 4 here and you will only win against 3 hands if you get called (55-88), and you get smashed by the others (65s/A2s/TT/JJ)

I guess, typing this out.. the play is not horrible.

UMTerp · #14 05-26-2006, 03:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you have quads sure shove, but villian could easily have a 2 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What could possibly make you think a villain would have a 2 here?

[ QUOTE ]
At the higher buyin levels ($55+) against good players, I'm torn on this play because most good players will fold a 4 here and you will only win against 3 hands if you get called (55-88)

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would a good player fold a 4, but call with 55? What's the difference?

Sykes · #15 05-26-2006, 03:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you have quads sure shove, but villian could easily have a 2 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What could possibly make you think a villain would have a 2 here?

[ QUOTE ]
At the higher buyin levels ($55+) against good players, I'm torn on this play because most good players will fold a 4 here and you will only win against 3 hands if you get called (55-88)

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would a good player fold a 4, but call with 55? What's the difference?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for the off chance that bad players shove a 4 in this instance?

Also, why is it unlikely that CO doesn't have a deuce here? Don't you limp with A2s in position with limper(s)?

Pudge714 · #16 05-26-2006, 03:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]

At the higher buyin levels ($55+) against good players, I'm torn on this play because most good players will fold a 4 here and you will only win against 3 hands if you get called (55-88), and you get smashed by the others (65s/A2s/TT/JJ)

I guess, typing this out.. the play is not horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

First off no good player is limping a 4 here. Unless he has 44 in which case you would have heard from him already.

As for hands that are beating you Villian is defintley not limping QQ+ he might limp TT,JJ. Those are the only reasonable hands that are beating you. So I think you are good on the river here most of the time. The question is how to extract the most value.

Also I hate the turn check.

UMTerp · #17 05-26-2006, 03:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Just for the off chance that bad players shove a 4 in this instance?

[/ QUOTE ]

So why wouldn't you call with the 4 also? I just don't see much of a difference between calling with 4X and calling with 55. I guess the odds of a split pot are somewhat increased with the 4, but how often are two limpers going to have a 4 in their hand?

[ QUOTE ]
Also, why is it unlikely that CO doesn't have a deuce here? Don't you limp with A2s in position with limper(s)?

[/ QUOTE ]

There was only one limper. And I don't, no, but I guess a lot of typical players would. I just don't see it as likely at all, but I guess it wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world.

ALReturnsLOL · #18 05-26-2006, 03:56 PM

Alright I will be results oriented for a sec. What did villian have?

robertsonjohn · #19 05-26-2006, 05:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So why wouldn't you call with the 4 also?

[/ QUOTE ]

Risking everything for a split pot vs. risking everything to win a big pot makes a pretty big difference equitywise.

(Is equitywise a word? Sure it is).

good2cu · #20 05-26-2006, 05:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just for the off chance that bad players shove a 4 in this instance?

[/ QUOTE ]

So why wouldn't you call with the 4 also? I just don't see much of a difference between calling with 4X and calling with 55. I guess the odds of a split pot are somewhat increased with the 4, but how often are two limpers going to have a 4 in their hand?

[ QUOTE ]
Also, why is it unlikely that CO doesn't have a deuce here? Don't you limp with A2s in position with limper(s)?

[/ QUOTE ]

There was only one limper. And I don't, no, but I guess a lot of typical players would. I just don't see it as likely at all, but I guess it wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world.

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you think he doesn't have a 2? This is probaly the extact line most people would take with a 2.