the proof is in the pudding

[Performify]

If he's actually 60% to win a game, his "true" line for that game is -150.

Switching subjects, if the widely available line is -110, a 60% win rate represents a Kelly stake of 16% of his bankroll on every game. At half-Kelly, 8% per game in isolation.

If you were taking 5 simultaneous games per Saturday, that would be 40% of your bankroll in action at Full Kelly stakes and bankroll growth of 60% per month.

This would grow $10,000 to $167,772.16 in six months and to $2,814,749.77 in twelve months.

At half-Kelly you'd be talking better than 25% bankroll growth per month with close to 30% of your roll in action on five simultaneous games per weekend.

This would grow $10,000 to $43,980.47 in six months and to $193,428.13 in twelve months.

-P