I 4-bet air pre with no reads or history

FoldEqu1ty · #1 07-17-2007, 03:19 AM

But I has stats:

Villain is 27/18/3 over 500 hands. His Fold SB to Steal is 72%, and Fold BB to Steal an amazing 57% (!). His Attempt to Steal is a moderate 30%, so I strongly suspect that most of his calling preflop is being done in position, and that he is 3-betting very light from the blinds, ~1/4 to 1/3 of the time versus Taggish LP raises.

His showdown stats are 20%WTSD and 55% W$SD, which are sensible if not nitty. So he is making folds postflop and not getting it in ultra light. Finally I think being 150BBs deep increases my Fold Equity significantly - he does not have the odds to call for set value, but the cost of running into AA/KK is much higher.

So even though we have no history together, I think we can infer enough about his playstyle from his stats to know that we are printing money here versus his range. Thoughts?

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $152.87
BB: $20.68
Hero (UTG): $177.43
BTN: $128.94

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 Players)
Hero raises to $4.00, BTN folds, SB raises to $15.00, BB folds, Hero raises to $42.00

Casper05 · #2 07-17-2007, 03:21 AM

folding to a shove, I assume. I still don't like it- just not necessary imo (and especially when we don't know his 3-bet frequency).

FoldEqu1ty · #3 07-17-2007, 03:22 AM

And holy sweetness and light, rvg is close to release his PT/PAHUD killing program which amoung many other things gives us multi-tablers a clear 3bet% stat.

FishSticks · #4 07-17-2007, 03:25 AM

You both have 150BB stacks - how can there not be history? If he's been coming over the top of you and you've been laying down, then I don't mind taking a stand light once in a while to stop the onslaught. By default, though, no obviously this isn't standard or good. Wtf do you do if you get called? Or repopped back smallish? I'd rather be doing this with a hand that had at least some actual clean outs.

apunisher · #5 07-17-2007, 03:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You both have 150BB stacks - how can there not be history? If he's been coming over the top of you and you've been laying down, then I don't mind taking a stand light once in a while to stop the onslaught. By default, though, no obviously this isn't standard or good. Wtf do you do if you get called? Or repopped back smallish? I'd rather be doing this with a hand that had at least some actual clean outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

pf....wth is a clean out?

FishSticks · #6 07-17-2007, 03:36 AM

I mean, if we had a small pocket pair we pretty much know whether he nailed the flop or not (clean outs to a set), whereas if we get called and flop top pair with the A6, we will often end up folding the best hand or end up paying off a better ace to an extent.

apunisher · #7 07-17-2007, 03:49 AM

i see what ur saying...but after we 4bet, its not as if we can all of a sudden only play for set value-that would just be spewing chips

also, after we 4bet, i honestly dont think there is any way we can fold if we flop tp, b/c his calling range is probably something like TT+ and AK, 4/6 hands we will be ahead of, and we will be getting too good of pot odds

FoldEqu1ty · #8 07-17-2007, 04:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You both have 150BB stacks - how can there not be history? If he's been coming over the top of you and you've been laying down, then I don't mind taking a stand light once in a while to stop the onslaught. By default, though, no obviously this isn't standard or good. Wtf do you do if you get called? Or repopped back smallish? I'd rather be doing this with a hand that had at least some actual clean outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been doubling up like every 20 hands since Friday - 2nd orbit at the table, made some money versus a fish.

This is a pure bluff, which I'm doing because I think he'll fold >>> 2/3 time pre

Heist · #9 07-17-2007, 04:24 AM

looks good /w reads.

mrjetguy · #10 07-17-2007, 04:30 AM

Not a hand I want to 4 bet with. If for some crazy reason he calls there is almost no flop you want to see. At least if you have 98s there are certain flops that look very good. Also, I don't think he is 3 betting light enough to make this play with this hand. 30 percent att. to steal blinds isn't that high considering that he raised from SB. Also, his raise seems a little larger than I would expect for a resteal (even though this could be mean either way obviously, w/o history hard to say).