Set of Ts, River Decision

[Buzz-cp]

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MP1 possible hands that we beat:

AJ (some combos discounted)
77
AA
99
A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Fluke KJ or KT hands

MP1 possible hands that beat us:

JJ
AQ (some combos discounted)
KQ
QJ (discounted some IMO)
random 8x (highly discounted)

I told Xhad that I would bet this river and expect to be ahead a decent amount when I was sweating him.

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I don't think we are expecting to be ahead after getting raised on the turn, and this particular river card. The probably is we are getting raised a lot by a better hand. We may as well check & call when he has a worse hand. c/f is so close, but this pot is huge.

[Alobar]

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I told Xhad that I would bet this river and expect to be ahead a decent amount when I was sweating him.

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if thats the case, then you should be 3 betting the turn

[DrModern]

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I told Xhad that I would bet this river and expect to be ahead a decent amount when I was sweating him.

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if thats the case, then you should be 3 betting the turn

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Well, hell, then I 3-bet the turn.

[Absolution]

This looks like KQ to me every time. I probably wouldn't be able to fold though so I'd check call.

[Xhad]

I crosspost a lot of my hands here, so for the curious:
Results and analysis from the SSHE thread

Basically, that river card pissed me off. Not because I was afraid I got killed by the straight, but because now mister nit is going to get scared out of betting AJs/77 because of the 1card straight. I thought about bet/folding to avoid this, but then I realized that the miniscule value I'd get out of those two hands was not very much when he was probably going to check behind on this board anyway, possibly even with JJ if that's what he has. A tight-passive player's biggest weaknesses are being too readable and not getting enough value from their hands, and this kind of board is perfect for exploiting both of those tendencies.

I commend DocModern for attempting to give Villain a range, but he's "about 18/10/1.22 over 700+ hands"...he is not raising a flop capper on the turn with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], he is not raising the flop with 99 either.

[ackid]

I think I c/c this one.

[Shillx]

Not that it matters much but it should be worth noting that the pot is protected. Just means that a "sanity" call isn't in order.

[Buzz-cp]

Shillx, I think I would still go insane if villain kept donking in the p-pot & I folded the best hand. Murphy's law dictates that he will bet into a protected pot this knowing that I will go insane (also implied tilt odds).