Your Wrong

[Tuff_Fish]

Sports betting is the third rail politically.

Don't touch it!

Poker players should NEVER even mention sports betting in any way except to emphatically point out that we are very very different.

Tuff

Sorry, fight your own fight.

[JPFisher55]

In general, ECB, I agree with you. Besides if the WTO grants Antiqua its requested IP sanctions then IMO the US will have to treat all internet gambling the same.
However, if litigation is needed to protect online gambling, then poker must separate from sports betting. The legal case for online poker under federal and many state laws is good. For online sports betting, the legal case under all jurisdictions is close to hopeless.

[MiltonFriedman]

I like Antigua, the beaches are extremely nice, the beer is swill, but the rum is top-grade.

However, you miss the point. Antigua will not throw poker under the bus because it cannot do so. For Antigua's online gaming sector, it is all or nothing.

Ironically, the real danger, although small, is that Antigua might yet throw online gambling under the WTO bus in favor of a really sweet tourism or financial services industry development commitment and jobs for Antiguans.

(Consider what a 3,000 person call center for VISA, MasterCard or someone similar would mean to Antiguans. Add to that the financial services industry profits from processing transactions. Considering also the legal leverage that the US has over VISA/Mastercard for processing coded gaming transaction, why think that it is not possible for DOJ to kill two birds with one stone ?)

[Skallagrim]

I am damn glad you do not work for the Bush administration Milton. And I hope the US Trade Rep. does not read 2+2 forums.

Skallagrim

[oldbookguy]

Only one flaw Milton, do you see a democratic congress approving such a deal that will send 3000 more American jobs overseas, no to mention that Antigua has a shaky banking foundation and is on the U. S. banking watch list?

Make that 2 flaws perhaps?

obg

[Legislurker]

[ QUOTE ]
I am damn glad you do not work for the Bush administration Milton. And I hope the US Trade Rep. does not read 2+2 forums.

Skallagrim

[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua can't handle much more tourism. Its hard to legislate where people vacation. They are not nor will be a top tier OFC. MFN and some regional/bilateral deals would kill any kind of financial package in that area as well. Any deal can't give them different tariff treatment/market access than that they give other nations. MFN is a beautiful concept for us. Give preference to banks and insurance there, be assured the EU will bring a WTO case. Other than straight cash there is nothing the USTR can offer. Antigua is so small that the size of the gaming busiess it had/had can't be replicated in another industry for them.

They can however reach a deal over remote gaming. It may not be legal, but another country bringing a case would take years and years. So they could throw poker under the bus because legislators make funny deals when they don't understnad what they are negotiating over. The good news is
it wont effect FT or Stars if Antigua did. Small chance though that Antigua is anything but a huge success or failure.

For Visa/MC the issue is cost. Antigua doesn't have the labor or the low wages to make it profitable at all.

[MiltonFriedman]

"Antigua can't handle much more tourism."

Sure it could. They have plenty of beaches and very little development of them. The major tourism constraint has been airline service and investment capital.

"Any deal can't give them different tariff treatment/market access than that they give other nations."

Sure it can. It would be a settlement of the WTO case. Also, FWIW, the Caribbean Basin Initiative expires soon.

"Antigua is so small that the size of the gaming busiess it had/had can't be replicated in another industry for them."

Huh ? Why couldn't that same workforce be put to work for other call centers, in other industries ? As for the rating of their banking system, most Canadian Banks have subsidiaries there. The remaining banks could be acquired by US-based concerns, given the right incentives.

As for MC/Visa cost analysis, I agree Antigua labor is both expensive and not reliable. However, it is English speaking and can point to call cener success for the online gaming industry. Also consider what VISA/MC and say BofA liability is for processing all those credit card transactions over the years for online gaming ? Aiding and abetting anyone ???

The potential is there for a deal, if the parties are serious and online gaming is expendible in the eyes of Antigua.

I am not saying that deep-sixing online gaming in Antigua WILL happen, and think it will not, but it is odd to insist it cannot happen.

[Jay Cohen]

Well....sure Antigua could throw poker under the bus in a settlement, but that's not their plan. I can see a map for sports over poker.

Antiguan banks are NOT on any watch list.

[oldbookguy]

Antigua is, as a Tax Haven Country.

SeePage 35)
http://www.law.northwestern.edu/coll...mics/Hines.pdf

This, in spite of the fact in 2001 A-B signed a Tax Exchange Agreement with the U. S. in 2001:
http://www.escapeartist.com/efam32/Barbuda.html

the latter should be highlighted as a tool A-B can and will use in properly regulating online wagering should it come to pass, I belive. This can only help and should be pointed out to members of congress, if this is still in effect.

obg

[Jay Cohen]

Being a tax haven does not mean they are on a watch list.

They used to be on a watch list, they worked very hard to get off of it and did. Today it's tougher to open a bank acount in Antigua than the US.