AC nosedive accelerating

[chucksim]

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Something I've always wondered was if a state allowed slots but not poker, and slots included "video poker," then might that allow the Poker Tek computerized poker tables?

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It depends how the law is written in each state. I assume they can't legally in Pennsylvania, or otherwise they would. On the other hand, Harrah's Cherokee in NC has computerized blackjack tables, because the state compact allows computerized games but not card games. I believe Delaware Park has electronic poker and blackjack, even though regular table games are illegal in Delaware.

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Poker is a no-no in PA. It's not legal to offer a game where any one player has an impact on another's odds. Obviously, poker is the classic example.

That said, PA does offer video blackjack (the ShuffleMaster 6 player "tables"), but the games have been modified by the manufacturer so each player plays out of his own 6 deck shoe.

[pocketpared]

While you can torture numbers to admit anything you want, these numbers don't lie.
January 2007 drop 2.9% over January 2006
February 2007 drop 4.8% over February 2006
March 2007 increase 1.3% over March 2006
April 2007 drop 9.9% over April 2006
May 2007 drop 5.5% over May 2006
June 2007 drop 1.9% over June 2006
July 2007 drop 2.3% over July 2006
August 2007 drop 5.9% over August 2006
September 2007 drop 10.6% over September 2006
http://www.state.nj.us/casinos/finan...atisitics.html

[Eponymous]

This Philadelphia Inquirer article is the best I've seen so far that not only summarizes all the new investment in AC, but it also describes the changing perceptions of the landscape in AC very well. It compares it to how Vegas had to re-invent itself in the '90s in the face of growing competition in California.

[NickMPK]

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While you can torture numbers to admit anything you want, these numbers don't lie.
January 2007 drop 2.9% over January 2006
February 2007 drop 4.8% over February 2006
March 2007 increase 1.3% over March 2006
April 2007 drop 9.9% over April 2006
May 2007 drop 5.5% over May 2006
June 2007 drop 1.9% over June 2006
July 2007 drop 2.3% over July 2006
August 2007 drop 5.9% over August 2006
September 2007 drop 10.6% over September 2006
http://www.state.nj.us/casinos/finan...atisitics.html

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OK, so if AC is "dying", how long do you think it will be before it is "dead"...i.e. all the casinos are closed?

All you've shown is that revenues this year are below that of last year. If revenues are up several straight years and then down the final year, how does that predict that revenues will continue to fall for all future years (as "dying" would imply)?

[TMTTR]

Majority of the loss is in the slots, not in table games (including poker). In fact, year-to-date table revenue is up. Drop in slots probably has something to do with the proliferation of slot machines at race tracks and other locations in neighboring states. I know they added them at Yonkers Raceway in NY in the last year -- I remember hearing something similar about Pennsylvania.

[Dima2000123]

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While you can torture numbers to admit anything you want, these numbers don't lie.
January 2007 drop 2.9% over January 2006
February 2007 drop 4.8% over February 2006
March 2007 increase 1.3% over March 2006
April 2007 drop 9.9% over April 2006
May 2007 drop 5.5% over May 2006
June 2007 drop 1.9% over June 2006
July 2007 drop 2.3% over July 2006
August 2007 drop 5.9% over August 2006
September 2007 drop 10.6% over September 2006
http://www.state.nj.us/casinos/finan...atisitics.html

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Torturing numbers to admit what you want is exactly what you're doing here. You're right, these numbers don't lie, they mislead (a greater sin than lying, IMO).

You're presenting those numbers as proof that revenues keep declining on and on, when in fact the most you can say for sure is that they reflect a single shift. Do you realize that if some one-time event causes a permanent reduction of revenue by say 5%, you will have 12 month-to-month decreases of 5% (give or take) in a row? Do you realize that one-time shift does not in fact constitute "acceleration" of anything?

Nothing that you have posted so far convinces me that you have even an iota of clue about the subject you're preaching. Any fool can collect a bunch of numbers. Correctly interpreting them is a different story, and those that can do that get paid a lot of money.

[pocketpared]

And you believe this decline happening at the same time competition in nearby states opens is a coincidence? And that more competition will increase AC revenues? Okay.

[redfisher]

Why does anybody think that a decrease in gambling revenue in AC is anything but a huge plus to poker players? There will be games. They may be a little tougher, but you should beat them. Given that poker players are the bottom of the comp bucket as far as casinos are concerned, you should be happy when the slot monkeys stay home. Fewer slot players means that poker players are more valued. General room rates, poker rates and other comps only get better when the overall casino business gets worse.

[pocketpared]

I have mixed emotions whether it's a boon or not. AC is notorious for cutting comps and devoting floor space to the more profitable forms of gambling.

And, btw, the competition is increasing. It hasn't leveled off. Poconos will have poker soon enough and other table games.

[Mandor_TFL]

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And you believe this decline happening at the same time competition in nearby states opens is a coincidence? And that more competition will increase AC revenues? Okay.


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That is precisely his point. Your tone of messages make it sound as if AC is going into a nosedive. Yet it is precisely because of PA Gaming that this is occurring. If it continues for 3-4 years then you have a point. ( as many PA casinos are not yet open ) AC had I believe at least 5 positive years of revenue before this year when PA slots opened up. And the PA slots are exceeding revenue expectation so far. Yet the decline in AC revenue I think is rather small considering the increased competition. Most of the casinos that have done renovation's have done well. The exception being the Tropicana whose renovation I like yet it appears not to be helping.


AC is currently undergoing revenue difficulty because of increased competition. It shows no signs of a trend which would lead to all the casino's closing. After the opening of Pinnacle and the rest of the PA casinos though, I would assume 1 or 2 of the small operators will have to close.