$27 - AK on the bubble

bluefeet · #1 03-09-2006, 09:51 AM

UTG is a bit looser than average...but not raising too often.
SB is a one-man wrecking crew. EXTREMELY aggressive, riding high after his 3rd consecutive suckout.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed)

UTG (t1150)
MP (t3440)
SB (t7395)
Hero (t1515)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="red">UTG calls 200</font>,1 fold,<font color="red">SB raises to 800</font>,Hero ?

tigerite · #2 03-09-2006, 10:02 AM

I would move all-in, but people might be surprised that it's a bit closer than it looks.

cha59 · #3 03-09-2006, 10:03 AM

I'd push. If SB is going to try to run over the table and you only have a slim lead on shorty, I'd want to try to double up at some point. You might as well try here while you have a hand. What is the alternative? Fold every hand and hope shorty busts before you do so you get 3rd?

cha59 · #4 03-09-2006, 10:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would move all-in, but people might be surprised that it's a bit closer than it looks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aside from the math involved, think about what happens the rest of the game if you fold this hand.

tigerite · #5 03-09-2006, 10:08 AM

Erm, UTG goes down a further 200 chips as well as us? Actually the fact UTG is involved is more of a factor to fold, so I'm not sure where you're coming from on that.

tigerite · #6 03-09-2006, 10:09 AM

By the way, we are playing for third here. So, stop this ridiculous notion of playing for first. We've had this argument a thousand times before.

gumpzilla · #7 03-09-2006, 10:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, we are playing for third here. So, stop this ridiculous notion of playing for first. We've had this argument a thousand times before.

[/ QUOTE ]

If so (and I agree that loosely this is how we should be thinking), I'm not sure there's much reason to get involved here. Arguments against:

-UTG is loose and might well call if we don't get involved.

-Pushing neglects the chance that UTG limped with a big hand, which detracts from our equity

-AK vs. random hand is probably slightly favorable ICM wise here just because we're not that much less short than shorty in the most favorable case.

Arguments for:

-If SB has been very aggressive, then there's a pretty good chance that UTG calling doubles UTG up, which hurts us pretty bad.

Interesting decision.

tigerite · #8 03-09-2006, 10:26 AM

Nah we're ok to move in if SB is raising about 40%, so I think it's a push, and close enough to do it. But we do still need to win almost two-thirds of the time against his range (assuming UTG folds, which he should without AA/KK).

gumpzilla · #9 03-09-2006, 10:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Nah we're ok to move in if SB is raising about 40%, so I think it's a push, and close enough to do it. But we do still need to win almost two-thirds of the time against his range (assuming UTG folds, which he should without AA/KK).

[/ QUOTE ]

What UTG should do and what UTG will do are different beasts. He's been described as loose and passive. I think he's probably not loose enough to call without a reasonably good hand there if we push, but I bet his range is wider than KK+. I don't think UTG is folding 88 there very often regardless of how many people get in, at least not at low buyins.

jawhoo · #10 03-09-2006, 11:10 AM

I'm surprised to read this. If we double up + UTGs 200, we're almost deadeven with MP, so we've got plenty of chance for 2nd. Neither of us is micro-stacked and blinds aren't huge, so there's an opportunity to come out in 1st. If we fold here, we're pretty much resigned to hopeing to outlast UTG for 3rd (or waking up w/ QQ+).

I'm just surprised the opportunity to possibly move up the prize ladder isn't a fair part of the decision.