2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25

[Lansingg]

fold but depends on your read

[TheBad]

Interesting discussion ! My feeling was that his shove makes no sense. If he has a set or a straight he either wants to make sure money goes in or he wants a save river to shove...

With so many outs i just had to call and i made my flush but didn´t need it because villain showed me 8h4h. Guess it´s plus/minus zero to call here.

By the way: PT says his AF was <1 after 40 hands.

[wikemang]

If he has a set or a straight he could shoving for protection on a very drawy board. I don't think the analysis that led you to call is correct.

[Chargers In 07]

check the turn? I know you have a decent hand but when somebody cold calls a bet and raise I'm not trying to play a huge pot esp when the straight draw gets there on the turn. Calling turn is bad.

[ActionStan]

With the line the took, I just don't see how you can fold. You are only priced out against his worst case hands. People who take awkward lines rarely have only the nuts in their ranges. I don't think that this is a big money maker, but there are just too many hands that you beat outright to just fold given that you have redraws to the nuts. People get all in with 45. People bluff. They just do. If your equity against their worst case is within 5% of what is being offered, look 'em up. People who take those sorts of lines are going to turn up atrocious hands often enough to make up for that 5%.

[Chargers In 07]

[ QUOTE ]
People who take awkward lines often have top and middle pair beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]When fish put in huge amounts of money at the $25 and $50 they have 2p or better.

[ActionStan]

Sure, sure. They often do have top and middle beaten. Just not always. The price we're being offered is reasonably close to the equity we have if the villain were to always have a set. The villain simply does not always have a set. He just doesn't. I think this is one of those places where you stack off more than you double up, but that the equity is easily positive.

I think the larger issue is that if you were to put more money in on the flop and turn, the decision isn't hard at all. It's only that we under bet that we left our decision that we had to think about. With aces up and the nut flush draw, we should be shoveling money in hand over fist. If he shoves, we call and start mumbling "club, club, club...."

[Chargers In 07]

[ QUOTE ]
The price we're being offered is reasonably close to the equity we have if the villain were to always have a set.

[/ QUOTE ] we're getting 1.49:1 on our call. Against a set we have 28.41% equity, we need 40.16% equity to call here. Coincidently against sets and 67 we have the same exact equity. I am only counting 44/55 as sets btw.

[ QUOTE ]
Usually i fold PF,

[/ QUOTE ] Didn't notice this until I did the math but folding preflop here is really really bad. Fold is the worst option.

[olliejen]

[ QUOTE ]
With the line the took, I just don't see how you can fold. You are only priced out against his worst case hands. People who take awkward lines rarely have only the nuts in their ranges. I don't think that this is a big money maker, but there are just too many hands that you beat outright to just fold given that you have redraws to the nuts. People get all in with 45. People bluff. They just do. If your equity against their worst case is within 5% of what is being offered, look 'em up. People who take those sorts of lines are going to turn up atrocious hands often enough to make up for that 5%.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're putting in 23.35 to win 38.95, and to me that seems like an overall loser in this spot given that you're generally a 2:1 dog in this spot.

Add in some strange hands, like 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and that number definitely comes closer to to 2.3-to-3.9, depending on how many more you can add.

However, I do think that you've raised a valid point in that we have a tendency to try and draw too many conclusions about a "villain" based on PT stats.

There's lots of hands that come through here, but not enough quality reads or information that would push the decisions clearly to + or - EV. I guess it's inevitable given the way you play poker online + multitable, but it does lower the overall quality of the posts in the forum.

I could happily go the rest of my life without seeing, "no reads, xx/xx/xx" or "villain is unknown, 1st hand at the table"...

[ActionStan]

In retrospect, I had us closer to needing 35% than 40%. I double added something or rounded too liberally somewhere. So, Chargers, I take it back, it's not so obvious a call. Given that we need 40%, it's a lot closer to break even in my mind. I think we can come up with reasonable ranges that leave us on both sides of that number. I think in that light, a call is neither good nor bad. If gambling in that sort of spot tilts you, definitely fold. If gambling tilts somebody who is going to rebuy, then I would still lean towards call given the line.

olliejen, you're right that pt stats can lead to a lot of sketchy conclusions. It also kills me that 22/8/2 is a "read". I must play too much live poker.