***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

[slothinator]

So you discount BA when I used it at one point, then use it yourself to try and discredit another one of my other arguments. Which is it?

Also, his BABIP was .240. That's why his BA was .230 last year. When his BABIP normalizes over a full season, you're looking at a .280, maybe even .300 hitter. So again, that's more hits and walks over a full season than Uribe, with the same number of HR.

I will admit that I am not factoring in defense when comparing these two players. My focus on player analysis tends to be strictly from a fantasy baseball perspective. If someone can show that D makes Uribe a better option than Richar, I'll concede that moving Uribe to 2B ahead of Richar is the better option. And I have now officialy spent more time analyzing Danny Richar than I ever intended.

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]
So you discount BA when I used it at one point, then use it yourself to try and discredit another one of my other arguments. Which is it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. You used BA and, to a lesser extent, HRs to tell the whole story of how Richar was good. That's why I laughed at you. The comment in my last post was further poking fun at you for saying how his strikeout-to-walk ratio supported his BA and even THROWING IN HIS MLB STRIKEOUT-TO-WALK RATIO to support that statement when he was horrible in the majors and had a supremely low BA. Hence you're inconsistent and make little sense = I poke fun and don't take you seriously. If you're actually knowledgable and stuff I have no problem taking you seriously and having an actual debate.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, his BABIP was .240. That's why his BA was .230 last year. When his BABIP normalizes over a full season, you're looking at a .280, maybe even .300 hitter. So again, that's more hits and walks over a full season than Uribe, with the same number of HR.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's his LD%? That will let you find his expected BABIP... He isn't a pitcher, dude.

[ QUOTE ]
My focus on player analysis tends to be strictly from a fantasy baseball perspective.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately this isn't fantasy baseball.

Even in fantasy baseball, though, Richar blows chunks and at best will be a platoon player when he's at home.

[MikeyPatriot]

Extremely quick and dirty AAA -> MLB translation for Richar:

404 AB
101 H
19 D
4 T
8 HR
33 BB
89 SO

.250/.307/.406

That's just for his first full year in the majors.

[MikeyPatriot]

PECOTA pegs him as a .255/.308/.390 type guy over the next 5 years.

[kyleb]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, his BABIP was .240. That's why his BA was .230 last year. When his BABIP normalizes over a full season, you're looking at a .280, maybe even .300 hitter.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not how you analyze BABIP for hitters. BABIP for hitters is heavily dependent on LD%, as Vyse said. The easy formula is .120 + LD% = eBABIP, but a full regression analysis gives a best fit line of 763LD% + .265GB% + .131FB%.

[MikeyPatriot]

Richar had a LD% of 18.2, so...

.120 + .182 = .302

If THT's GB% is a total of GB, FB, and LD (and not just GB/FB)...

.763(.182) + .265(.455) + .131(.363) = .309

Richar's actual BABIP = .248

[rwperu34]

While you're on the subject of BABIP, Uribe's has been .259 and .240 the last two years compared to a career mark of .281.

[MikeyPatriot]

[ QUOTE ]
While you're on the subject of BABIP, Uribe's has been .259 and .240 the last two years compared to a career mark of .281.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was .264 three years ago.

[kyleb]

You might want to check BABIP for the Cell. It might be depressed due to park effects. At any rate, a BABIP of .248 given his LD% seems pretty low. I think it would be safe to say he's running bad.

That doesn't necessarily fix the problem that he has a below-average batting eye, though.

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
And I have now officialy spent more time analyzing Danny Richar than I ever intended.


[/ QUOTE ]

Vyse will do that to you. I got sucked in on Josh Anderson [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

One quick point. When analyzing minor leaguers, age relative to league is very important. A 22 y/o mashing in A ball is not as valuable as a 19 y/o. It's not because of the length of career, it's because of physical maturity and development time left. It's also usually a good indication of the tools of the player.

Uribe is a quality defender wheras Richar is not, or at least might not be. Richar does not have a very high ceiling. His value is that he's a cheap player that could be league average and is ready for the bigs right now. For the White Sox to trade Uribe, they would have to use the savings to replace his production. They should not trade him for prospects unless they plan on spending the money saved elsewhere.