2008 Presidential primaries thread

[Kneel B4 Zod]

I think America is much more ready for a female president than an African-American one.

perhaps more important is that a lot of people think he is of Arabic descent, or practices Islam.

[Aloysius]

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Barack : no realistic chance of even being the democratic nominee; too little experience and America won't elect anyone who's not white

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Cbloom - I am starting to read up on the candidates more, and at first blush this was my thought. However my buddy who was a political consultant for many years says that he's got a chance based on "the numbers".

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Not directed at me but I'll throw my .02 in. when someone is refering to "the numbers" like that with a candidate like Obama I would guess they are thinking about the 65%+ of the 18-34 demographic that doesn't vote but could get motivated by the right type of candidate. Plus a huge percentage of the minorities in the South.

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I believe a lot of people view him as the "dream" candidate right now - honest, charismatic, fresh. However, we need to wait and see how people's opinions change once the mudslinging begins. Look how Bush brought McCain down in South Carolina in 2000 with dirty tactics. McCain never recovered...

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Yeah - seems like we're way too early to make educated guesses on % chance.

Iron - oh regarding Barack among blacks - I actually use that as an example of possible misinformation / spin (which Slate magazine is notorious for). Cause at the end of the day... he's black and Hilary's not.

-Al

[ZBTHorton]

A couple of things,

#1. Anyone who thinks Rudy has any chance of getting elected is completely delusional. What Republican is going to vote for a guy who's anti guns, pro gay, and pro abortion? In fact, why is he a Republican anyway? Top that off with marrying his cousin, his affair with his communication director and his divorce from his second wife. He has 0 chance once everyone in America learns anything about him.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2007/02/gu...ould.html#more
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/n...702070063feb07,1,7692936.story?amp;cset=true&ctrack=1&cs et=true
http://cookpolitical.com/column/2007/020307.php

As far as Hillary goes, I definitely think she has a solid chance to get the democrat nomination. She has basically unlimited resources, and has probably the best campaigner alive in her corner. She made some big mistakes early on the Iraq war, but once she realized she needed to change in order to run for President she did. I personally hate her guts, and think she acts like a stuck up bitch all the time..but whatever.

Barrack Obama has a lot more chance than a lot of people give him credit for. A lot of people say he doesn't have much experience, but not every president has a lot of experience going into the position. George W and JFK are two examples. He also has unlimited money resources just like Hillary, and this will definitely help him get his name out there and make people realize his name shouldn't be a problem.

Everyone is saying that Barrack is polling badly with the poor black community, but that should be fairly obvious. As a general rule, the lower the income range you are in the less involved in politics you are. So of course they are going to support Hillary Clinton, who they know WAY more about.

If you think a Black man is going to get a democratic nomination, and be one of two men to vote for for president and NOT get the black vote...I think your delusional. As for the primaries, a much larger % of white people vote than black people, so it's almost a non-issue against Hillary.

[nyc999]

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grumbling among the civil rights community that Obama "isn't black enough".

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This is the primary reason. Obama is well-known with the African-American community but they cannot relate to him. Being raised in Hawaii by a white woman, many feel he hasn't shared their life experiences.

[kutuz_off]

I think McCain doomed himself with his "more hawkish than GWB" stance. The war is so hugely unpopular at this point that he will be unable to overcome this. Also, the way he sided with Bush on so many issues will lose him a lot of democratic voters who viewed him with approval back in 2000.

In general, whoever wins primaries, Republican candidate will be starting in a sizeable disadvantage.

Obama would make a great VP candidate, to be groomed for presidency in 8 years.

[Aloysius]

Another polling site with analysis rec'ed by my buddy:

Mystery Pollster

CobraKai:

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not directed at me but I'll throw my .02 in. when someone is refering to "the numbers" like that with a candidate like Obama I would guess they are thinking about the 65%+ of the 18-34 demographic that doesn't vote but could get motivated by the right type of candidate. Plus a huge percentage of the minorities in the South.

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Ah I see, thanks, I think he may have mentioned something about that.

-Al

[onoble]

Real Quick...

Rudy is running for Vice President. He's not dumb he knows he can't be the nominee. He's more liberal than some of the Democratic candidates BUT as a VP he's ideal. He can motivate swing voters and moderates becuase of his liberal stance. And he is from NY... if he makes NY competitive for the GOP then the dems lose.

2) Hillary. Is a viable candidate in the general. Remember we elect presidents through the electoral college not a popular vote. To win all she has to do is win every state John Kerry did plus one more. Which, after the results of the midterms is very very possible.

McCain is going to selfdestruct in a few months. Look for darkhoue Huckabee or Romney.

[ImsaKidd]

I dont think this was mentioned (skimmed):

Anyone know which of the candidates (if any) is pro internet gambling? I dont really know how to do political research, if this is an easily google-able problem then never mind...

[NLSoldier]

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In general, whoever wins primaries, Republican candidate will be starting in a sizeable disadvantage.

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If the dem nominee is obama or hilary wont the republican nominee automatically have a pretty huge advantage?

[odellthurman]

I believe that we are heading towards a President - - not just a nominee - - who captures the imagination and idealism of the American people. Obama is the most dynamic candidate from either party, and I believe that he is going to develop a JFK-esque persona and following that will result in his nomination and election.

Of course, I could be wrong, and we may end up with Jeb Bush.