Waiting to turn to protect, JJ overpair, multiway FD board?

Mitke · #1 10-07-2007, 05:16 AM

BB who donks the flop is 20/8/2. I'm pretty sure he'll lead again on turn if he's willing to donk into a field of 5. Only hands Hero has shown down in the table are AA, KK, JJ, fwiw. Other people are between vpip 40-20, AF < 1.5, no obvious donkey's, bar the vpip 40 guy (MP1).

The pot is biggish and will surely get bigger and I'd tend to lean towards choosing a line that maximizes my chance of winning it.

With this big a field any spade or overcard is probably bad news for me. That's 18 cards. I wouldn't like a straight card too much either. Hence, it seems our equity can change dramatically come the turn even if we probably have equity over our fair share now. Moreover, my guess would be that a FD with one overcard is probably the big favourite on the flop and would gain the most if Hero raised here.

So which is the best line and why? And does my reasoning above make any sense to you?

(Tell me if calling here is weak as I'm in a soon four month long DS and it's beginning to affect my confidence on my poker skills and reasoning. Whine over. Sorry for that.)
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Poker Room skin Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $2/$4 10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero in CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls (1.5:1), UTG+2 calls (2.5:1), MP1 calls (3.5:1), 2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls (6.5:1), UTG+1 calls (7.5:1), UTG+2 calls (8.5:1), MP1 calls (9.5:1).

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (10.5SB, 5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls (11.5:1), MP1 calls (12.5:1), Hero ??

BubbleMint · #2 10-07-2007, 05:51 AM

As well as all the cards you cited having to miss, you are not happy if the board pairs either.

Personally I would raise and hope UTG+1 3 towns, this could force out some of the calling stations. I assume your read of 'BB who donks the flop' is actually UTG+1.
With his aggression factor a 3 bet from him is not out of the question.

If UTG+1 3 bets and gets a cold caller I think we just found out where our flush draw is and from there on out it makes the hand easier to play.

Mitke · #3 10-07-2007, 06:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I assume your read of 'BB who donks the flop' is actually UTG+1.

[/ QUOTE ]You are right. Cannot edit anymore.

Niediam · #4 10-07-2007, 06:52 AM

I think this is ok if you are sure villian is going to lead the turn.

Mitke · #5 10-07-2007, 08:12 AM

Did some Stoving on this.
Hero ~33%
Spades with one overcard ~40%. (A reasonable assumption imo with four villains.)
Others ~15-20% below the top range, ~9% each.

Hmm, in this light we should raise now as protection is pretty much impossible anyway bar if the UTG 3-bets. Pot is so big even a turn raise wouldn't protect the pot for one BB more.

On the other hand, given our relative position to the probable turn bettor we might get to trap the whole field for 2big bets on a safe turn, unless UTG would 3-bet the turn.

So, this seems actually more of a value maximization issue.
A safe turn would tip the percentages in our favour, 40%, 30% + 10% for the others.

One Outer · #6 10-07-2007, 11:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
BB who donks the flop is 20/8/2.

Flop: 7 2 5 (10.5SB, 5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls (11.5:1), MP1 calls (12.5:1), Hero ??

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean UTG+1? Are those his stats?

Anyhoo, raise for value. I do wish you had a better chance to protect your hand, but you are very, very likely to be ahead here. I know there are a lot of scary turns but this is a great board for your hand. Just pop it and play pokers after it gets back to UTG+1

BTW, the flush draw with one overcard is at best a small favorite, and if the turn bricks you become a big favorite.

If a spade or overcard hits the turn I would bet/fold. If not raised, check a river behind. If a straight card hits the turn I would bet/call and call a river bet if no flush or over hits.

KitCloudkicker · #7 10-07-2007, 12:07 PM

i think you have just enough equity on this flop to raise, considering no one has yet done so.