Does anyone call this?

[TheMadHeater]

Cryptologic - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB(hero): $209.85
BB: $420.24
UTG: $145.59
UTG+1: $155.05
MP1: $24.60
MP2: $34.75
MP3: $17.65
UTG:: $0.00
SB:: $0.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img](7 Players)
UTG calls $1.00, 3 folds, MP3 calls $1.00, Hero calls $0.50, BB checks

Flop: ($4) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4.00</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $4.00, MP3 folds

Turn: ($12) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12.00</font>, UTG calls $12.00

River: ($36) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $36.00</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises all-in to $128.59</font>


No significant reads. Villain seems bad-loose-passive.

[TheMadHeater]

Edited a little, since converter didn't really work.

[JavaNut]

You are getting a little better than 1,5-1. So you need to win at least 40% of the time for a call to be correct.

Anything else than a 2 in his hand and you win.

Does he have a 2 more than 60% of the time? I would think he could have J99x or any 99, he could have you on QJT8, KQJT pretending that you have JJ and he could be bluffing.
I don't think he has a 2 more than 60% of the time, also if he had, he sometimes would raise smaller to get you to call.

I'd call and I probably would go broke. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[TheMadHeater]

I dunno. The way I saw it, he's never value-raising worse and is almost never bluffing. But then I called anyway because wtf I have top full. He showed Ahxh2x obv.

[alavet]

very tought
you beter clear the results to get more opinions
if you know he is _really passive so better forget it
some players never bluffs; you need to note this

[nopepper]

easy call

[morphball]

Seems like a fold to me. AA,KK,QQ and 2xxx are all ahead. AA is probably unlikely, but all of the other hands may be equally likely, and this is a bad spot for villian to bluff. Check-folding this river seems wretched, though. I'd bet $24-27 and fold to a raise.

[TheRempel]

You need to reread the op. JJJ22 &gt; 222QQ.

And yeah this is one of those spots where vs a nitty passive player it's always a fold. Against a laggy player it's a sick spot but I almost always pay it off.

[morphball]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to reread the op. JJJ22 &gt; 222QQ.

And yeah this is one of those spots where vs a nitty passive player it's always a fold. Against a laggy player it's a sick spot but I almost always pay it off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Crap, I need more coffee

[bluffbetter]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like a fold to me. AA,KK,QQ and 2xxx are all ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is my head not working today, or are AA and KK not ahead?