Low Variance

BobbyLight · #1 10-30-2007, 05:21 PM

Hi,

I just wanted to make sure this particular hand was okay. I'm semi new to the forums and am trying to learn the best lines in situations. The opponent in this hand was pretty loose and "stationy." He likes limp calling. I have c-bet the flop a few times against him and taken it down. I haven't seen a flop raise like this from him before nor a turn outright shove.

This was a NL 200 hand. I have a relatively Tight Aggressive Image.

5 handed

I open to $8 after he limps under the gun in with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], folds back to him and he calls after the blinds and button fold.

The flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

he checks, I bet $14, he raises to $45, I call....

I don't think he would fold J9 or a set obviously nor a hand like QJ most likely

anyway

turn 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

he pushes for $180 and I fold.

the machine · #2 10-30-2007, 05:26 PM

shove the flop. if you think he has QJ then shoving gives him a chance to fold the hand, which is only marginally better then your hand. if called its a coin flip.

as played its a fold

Sean Fraley · #3 10-30-2007, 05:32 PM

Even if you are unlikely to fold villain shoving the flop makes sure that villain cannot make a turn bet that makes it unprofitable to see the river, thereby guaranteeing that you will get to see both cards.

Take a moment right now to meditate on the thought that passing up a profit is the same as taking a loss. Never pass up value in an attempt to reduce variance.

Hince · #4 10-30-2007, 06:30 PM

Get it in on the flop. Your equity is high enough to get it in here, and you may fold a lone jack. Having to fold the turn sucks.

how_can_losing? · #5 10-30-2007, 06:48 PM

OP, I agree with the other posters. If you aren't willing to felt this hand with this flop, you should not raise with it preflop and you should not bet the flop. He obliged you with a checkraise, now push and make him dodge all your outs--twice.

I used to play the hand as you did, but mostly because I was uncomfortable with getting all my money in on a draw (i.e., not comfortable with the stakes). I'm not saying this is why you played as you did, but I sometimes see others playing combo draws passively against one opponent, and this is a sure way to lose money in the long run.

SpecT · #6 10-30-2007, 08:17 PM

god just shove flop. already money in the pot, and even if you do get called you're going to be flipping alot of the time

Ajahn · #7 10-30-2007, 08:20 PM

All-in. [censored] variance.

thac · #8 10-30-2007, 08:40 PM

This doesn't seem like variance, it seems like scared money. You gotta shove the flop dude.

Isura · #9 10-30-2007, 08:53 PM

Hope he didn't have TQ!

sh58 · #10 10-30-2007, 09:06 PM

shove the flop. your equity on the flop is great, your equity on the turn is less good. take it while it's hot