#21
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Re: AQ on KK flop
[ QUOTE ]
3pop was an easy one for me, despite the c/r. I might have the best hand I don't want people c/r-ing me on paired boards with nothing. I would've folded to a cap. [/ QUOTE ] if you have a strong sense that they have nothing you are much better off just calling him down. also against some observant players, they will cap the flop with a wider range you give them credit for because they will sense a flop 3-bet as being weak since it is *standard* for big hands to pop the turn or river. also since you picked up a gutshot on the turn and that your villain is probably never folding a pair there is a good argument for taking a freebie on the turn. |
#22
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Re: AQ on KK flop
[ QUOTE ]
Nightwood, here's an exercise for you: [...] I'll get you started: Villain has a king 40% Villain has pocket pair less than Q 40% Villain is on a stone bluff 20% What's the EV of a bet here? [/ QUOTE ] Well, I tried it [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] (my first more complicated EV-calc ever). I must admit, calculating the bluff EV is above my head right now because there's too many variables (villains bluff-range, dirty outs to chop when villain holds A or Q, possible str8s, flushes for villains, bluff-line of villain ... ...) Nonetheless since the result here is only slighly -EV I'm afraid I made some mistakes [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] After playing around with starting hand ranges I think the probability villain has K vs pair should be more like 3:1 than 1:1, which makes it worse for us. 'nuff talk .. here's my numbers so far: ------------------------------------------------------------- Ok, when BB raised pot was 5.5BB. Assumptions: If BB holds K or pair, he'll bet T+R. If he's on a bluff on thus drawing to five outs he'll bet T but check R UI (bet improved). Villain doesn't hold AK/AQ/JJ/TT (PF). I'll fold to a bet UI on R but call any A,Q,J,10, call R with pair and raise R with str8 (BB calls). Villain holds K (40%): Turn bets - I fold UI (33/47): EV = .5 *(33/47) ~ -.351 bets - I spike pair or gutshot (14/47) and call River bets: - I fold (8/47 * 36/46): EV = -1.5 * 144/1081 = -.2 / gutshot don't hit, no pair - I call (6/47): EV = -2.5 * 6/47 = -.319 / turn-pair ING, (only AA-trips help, I left that out b/c it's highly improbable) I guesstimate that in 20% of the cases my str8 will be counterfeited by a boat/quads and rr-ed. - I raise (8/47 * 4/46) EV = .80 * (+10 * 16/1081) = +.118 / str8 is goot - RR by boat I call EV = .20 * (-4.5 * 16/1081) = -.013 / str8 no goot Total EV here : 0.4 * (-.351 - .2 - .319 + .118 - .013 ) = -.306 Villain holds pair (40%): Turn as above. River bets - I fold (8/47 * 36/46): EV = -1.5 * 144/1081 = -.2 / gutshot don't hit, no pair I approximate that villain will 10% improve to set. - I call (6/47): EV = .9 * (+10 * 6/47) = +1.149 / turn-pair IG - I call (6/47): EV = .1 * (-2.5 * 6/47) = -0.032 / turn-pair ING Same str8-calcs as above. Total EV here : 0.4 * (-.351 - .2 + 1.149 - .032 + .118 -.013) = .268 ------------------------------------- Absolute EV (40/40): - .038BB Absolute EV (3:1) : - .163BB |
#23
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Re: AQ on KK flop
Nightwood,
This actually looks pretty good and is more complicated than what I was thinking. Since it's pretty safe to assume that calling a bluff is +EV, and I don't see the EV when you catch a pair in the second 40%, but I think your analysis shows that we should at least be calling villain's raise. So good job, that's the EV of a call. What I was intending to ask for was the EV of a 3-bet, which I would calculate something like this: Villain has K (40%) - we hit runner-runner AA or straight about 2% of the time. So we win 1 bet 2% of the time and lose 1 bet 98% of the time. Total EV = 2%*1 + 98%*-1 = -.096 Villain has a pair less than Q (40%) - We hit an A or Q about 12.5% by the river. Total EV = 12.5%*1 + 87.5*-1 = -.75 Villain is stone bluffing (20%) - EV = 1. So the total EV of 3-betting is 40%*-9.6 + 40%*-.75 + 20%*1 = -.484. If we believe these ratios at all, 3-betting this flop is a really bad idea. FWIW, 25%/25%/50% makes it +EV. Do we think villain is stone bluffing 50% of the time??? Can we reasonably conclude that calling is a good idea and 3-betting is bad? |
#24
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Re: AQ on KK flop
[ QUOTE ]
Can we reasonably conclude that calling is a good idea and 3-betting is bad? [/ QUOTE ] I guess we can. Calling is only slightly -EV even if villain never bluffs and the line is easy to play. 3betting is definitely -EV even under most favorable conditions. |
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