NFL Wins total Question

UMTerp · #1 08-27-2007, 10:51 AM

Hopefully I can phrase this reasonably... what is it generally accepted that the "right odds" are for "buying a win" in a season-long win total bet in the NFL?

Obviously, going from 7 to 8 wins is different from 14 to 15 wins, but assume a middle-of-the pack team.

Like if the Redskins are even money to win o/u 7.5, what should the odds be for o/u 8.5? -180 for under? Longer/shorter than that? How about half a win for a middle-of-the-pack team?

Thanks.

ImStillBen · #2 08-27-2007, 11:42 AM

-223.18

bevo_stevo · #3 08-27-2007, 08:10 PM

Bens correct, but the answer probably wasn't very helpful (par for the course there).

You should probably get out Excel (or OpenOffice if you're an anarchist) and play around with the BINOMDIST function. Create a column numbered 0..16. Use 7.5/16 = 0.46875 for the probability, 16 for the number of trials - the season length, and reference the corresponding cell in the 0..16 column to determine how likely it is to win a given number of games.

This really isn't all that difficult once you get a little intuition about how it works. Good luck.

Thremp · #4 08-27-2007, 09:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bens correct, but the answer probably wasn't very helpful (par for the course there).

You should probably get out Excel (or OpenOffice if you're an anarchist) and play around with the BINOMDIST function. Create a column numbered 0..16. Use 7.5/16 = 0.46875 for the probability, 16 for the number of trials - the season length, and reference the corresponding cell in the 0..16 column to determine how likely it is to win a given number of games.

This really isn't all that difficult once you get a little intuition about how it works. Good luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Handing out your rice bowl is -EV.

bevo_stevo · #5 08-27-2007, 11:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Handing out your rice bowl is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never would have guessed a 1st semester Statistics course would be the Holy Grail of sports betting. This information has been discussed plenty of other places, even in 2+2 magazine itself. So if you think this sort of computation is difficult, or "sharp", you're just plain wrong.