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#31
10-26-2007, 02:03 AM
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Re: 160BB river call...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Why the hell not? [ QUOTE ] Villain is 34/9/2.2. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] Let's assume that a passive villain won't turn a set or air into a bluff on the river, therefore assume the villain has a flush on the turn. What are the possible flushes he can have... T9s, 65s, 64s, 54s, 53s (T6s?)... so there are 5 flushes that we beat and ATs, A9s, A6s, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s, so there are 7 flushes we lose to...IF the villain will 3-bet the turn with 65s, 64s, 54s, 53s? If you make reasonable assumptions about a passive villain, I don't see them 3-betting and possibly having to call a 4-bt on the turn with what the vast majority of the time would be a 6 high flush. Am I wrong with my assumption? [/ QUOTE ] I don't have a range of 33% of hands but I'm pretty sure a base 33% range (pokerstove) has a LOT of suited 2-gappers and I'm just guessing but I would say something like 93s is in his range because it's pretty. [/ QUOTE ] I've got to be honest, I'm pretty bad with hand ranges but I'm pretty sure that an aggression factor of 2.2 for a 30 vpip Villain is very passive...therefore, I need a good explanation for a tiny donk bet turn following by a 3-bet reraise. Followed by an over pot bet shove on the river. [/ QUOTE ] For a guy playing that many hands, 2.2 is quite aggressive, unless he folds a LOT. 
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#32
10-26-2007, 02:04 AM
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Re: 160BB river call...
[ QUOTE ]
i can't wait for OP to release results, show that he called, show that villain had Axss and for paul to say "I told you so!" its sooooooo inevitable. [/ QUOTE ] i know... but the real point of the forum is not to be result orientated so if the villain had T9s then i don't care. But you know what would be real super god damn Villain is so sexy is if Villain held the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] X off suite and was bluffing the river knowing the hero can't call. Now that would be sexy-as-hell!
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#33
10-26-2007, 02:06 AM
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Re: 160BB river call...
Meh idk if I could fold it but I think Paul kinda has a point with the possible flush draws out there. With all those spades accounted for there's just more nut flushes out there than junk flushes and if our read is he's loose/passive I think his range has to be weighted more towards nut flushes than baby flushes just because of his actions, let alone the distributions. Still, we're getting almost 2:1 and there's always a chance he pulled some weird spaz move without a flush.
I'd probably call and then go smash something. Because you lose everything and the idiot fish is the mega winner, and that's just how this game works.
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#34
10-26-2007, 02:06 AM
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Re: 160BB river call...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Why the hell not? [ QUOTE ] Villain is 34/9/2.2. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] Let's assume that a passive villain won't turn a set or air into a bluff on the river, therefore assume the villain has a flush on the turn. What are the possible flushes he can have... T9s, 65s, 64s, 54s, 53s (T6s?)... so there are 5 flushes that we beat and ATs, A9s, A6s, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s, so there are 7 flushes we lose to...IF the villain will 3-bet the turn with 65s, 64s, 54s, 53s? If you make reasonable assumptions about a passive villain, I don't see them 3-betting and possibly having to call a 4-bt on the turn with what the vast majority of the time would be a 6 high flush. Am I wrong with my assumption? [/ QUOTE ] I don't have a range of 33% of hands but I'm pretty sure a base 33% range (pokerstove) has a LOT of suited 2-gappers and I'm just guessing but I would say something like 93s is in his range because it's pretty. [/ QUOTE ] I've got to be honest, I'm pretty bad with hand ranges but I'm pretty sure that an aggression factor of 2.2 for a 30 vpip Villain is very passive...therefore, I need a good explanation for a tiny donk bet turn following by a 3-bet reraise. Followed by an over pot bet shove on the river. [/ QUOTE ] For a guy playing that many hands, 2.2 is quite aggressive, unless he folds a LOT. [/ QUOTE ] you're totally right. not only am i bad a preflop vpip but also aggression factor...i obviously got the inverse relationship between vpip and aggresion factor backward!! So with the new assumption that the villain is aggressive, given his vpip, do you still think he 3-bets the turn with 65s?
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#36
10-26-2007, 02:08 AM
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Re: 160BB river call...
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[ QUOTE ] i think ike was saying if we had 86ss or 98ss? [/ QUOTE ] I obviously get that... therefore, what range of flush draws could the villain hold outside of T9s and AXs on the turn? [/ QUOTE ] any fd bc hes a fish?
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#40
10-26-2007, 02:12 AM
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Re: 160BB river call...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i think ike was saying if we had 86ss or 98ss? [/ QUOTE ] I obviously get that... therefore, what range of flush draws could the villain hold outside of T9s and AXs on the turn? [/ QUOTE ] any fd bc hes a fish? [/ QUOTE ] come on that doesn't explain the turn 3-bet plus the over pot bet on the river. fish do stupid things for sure, but when 1/5 of their flush draws are ten high and the rest are 6 high...i just don't think that they play this aggressive as they would when they have a K high 2nd nut flush...you know what i mean?
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