Razz for Rusty

[Praxising]

Rusty - just in case you think I don't listen, I made this river call on pot odds alone because I knew you would have. Well, I thought you would have. I thought for a long time and finally said, "F- it, Rusty would call here." And, as an added bonus, that was Fuchs who folded the 9 hi on 4th street. (See, he really is a regular-ish player up higher.)

Razz ($3/$6), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $1 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.58 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds

4th Street - (3.92 SB)

Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (2.96 BB)

Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (4.96 BB)

Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

River - (6.96 BB)

Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___bets

Total pot: (8.96 BB)

*** SUMMARY ***
<font color="white">
Total pot $53.75 | Rake $2
Seat 1: folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 2: folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 3: folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 4: showed [3h 5h 8s 4c Kh Kc Tc] and won ($51.75) with Lo: T,8,5,4,3
Seat 5: folded on the 4th Street
Seat 6: showed [9h Ah 5d 7d Ks Qh 5c] and lost with Lo: Q,9,7,5,A
Seat 7: folded on the 3rd Street</font>

[RustyBrooks]

Against this guy I call all day.

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
Against this guy I call all day.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are there guys you wouldn't call here? If there are, you two probably shouldn't be playing 3/6. Any player at that limit is capable of bluffing the river when they miss completely and are left with a Q low, hoping that you missed your 8 low and will fold a T or a J, maybe a 9.

[RustyBrooks]

I don't play 3/6.

Are there guys I wouldn't call there? Yes, but they would not have bet 5th or 6th. Would you still call if it was only 4:1? I guess I still might. The chances of him having improved in that case are relatively near my pot odds, though, which means that even if he's bluffing he's probably bluffing near optimimum frequency.

[RustyBrooks]

I think I phrased that badly. He improves like 60% of the time past my T, right? He has 6 cards he can catch, probably something like 19-20 outs out of 35 unknowns.

I only win when he's bluffing, so if B is his bluff percentage, and he has a losing hand 40% of the time, then I win .4B*4 on average. (If the pot is 4bb)

If B &gt; 65% then I have a positive expectation, otherwise I don't.

The pot the size it is now, I have positive expectation if he bluffs 35% of the time or more, PLUS because of his actions on 5th and 6th, I think he bluffs this an awful lot.

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't play 3/6.

Are there guys I wouldn't call there? Yes, but they would not have bet 5th or 6th.

[/ QUOTE ]
What's wrong with betting 5th and 6th? Are you saying that villain's line on those streets would give you a read on his style, or that without bets on 5th and 6th the pot would be tiny?

[RustyBrooks]

Both. I don't think there's anything wrong with betting 5th and 6th, but I would actually expect that guy to fire on the river more often. The guy who checks 5th and 6th strikes me more of a wait and see kind of person. I don't think a person who checks 5th and 6th with value bet 7th with a Q or a J but someone who bets 5th and 6th might.

But also, if 5th and 6th gets checked then the bluffing percentage problem that I mentioned comes into the math.

I don't actually know this villian, my inital comment was basically that I would be much more likely to call in this spot against someone who's style leads them to bet 5th and 6th.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Against this guy I call all day.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are there guys you wouldn't call here? If there are, you two probably shouldn't be playing 3/6. Any player at that limit is capable of bluffing the river when they miss completely and are left with a Q low, hoping that you missed your 8 low and will fold a T or a J, maybe a 9.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks, SG, that's what I wanted to hear. No, I shouldn't be playing at this limit. But I will be playing at this limit, so I am making forays and trying to learn how it plays. The short time I spent at 5/10 seemed easier to me than the short time I spent at 3/6. But tables have their own character, so, I wondered if the limit was chraracterized by this kind of play or just the table.

Now I see what you meant weeks ago by having to have the cards because you went to showdown a lot. No kidding, huh?

I rarely call in this situation with a T at .50/1 or 1/2. Tens are almost never good. But I knew this guy from other limits and he was always playing crap in the hole and bluffing and losing. And then there was just so much money in the pot and I really did think Rusty would call here.

So, now I know more about how to adjust my game and how much money I'll need and how big the swings are going to be. I had three similar hands at this session, I won twice, I made some money, I got out. But I also only played for twenty minutes and had to reload once!

whew--fun, tho.'

Any other 3/6 comments are greatly appreciated.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't actually know this villian, my inital comment was basically that I would be much more likely to call in this spot against someone who's style leads them to bet 5th and 6th.

[/ QUOTE ]You know, Rusty, you have the most fascinating way of combining the mathematical and the situational. I never thought of bluffing as a probability issue related to betting behaviors before. I wish you'd take some time and try to write it up as a sort of mini thesis and start a thread and post it. I think it would be a great discussion.