Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Limit Texas Hold'em > Small Stakes Shorthanded

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11  
Old 11-07-2007, 06:51 PM
mute mute is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Denmark
Posts: 3,063
Default Re: Basic River Value Question

I think it's an easy bet. Even loose passives often donk their pair at some point during this hand, and there's a lot more acehigh combos than pair combos anyway, and he pays off with king high a lot as well, I think.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 11-07-2007, 06:56 PM
Oink Oink is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: SLAAAYYYERRRR ! ! ! !
Posts: 4,226
Default Re: Basic River Value Question

Pretty much what Mute said.

This is a standard bet for me
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 11-07-2007, 10:20 PM
Municipal Hare Municipal Hare is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Tone-
Posts: 404
Default Re: Basic River Value Question

I don't know if a lot of king-highs are calling. Still, his range should be weighted against deuces full enough by the third check that you probably have a wire-thin edge when called.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 11-08-2007, 12:42 AM
waffle waffle is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,231
Default Re: Basic River Value Question

I think he will show up with a pair a surprising amount of the time. We have a read that he is passive pre and post - this means that he is pretty likely to play a hand like 99 like this.

I used this range as an estimate of what he will _call_ a river bet with:



If this is the case, he has 84 combos you beat and 120 combos you lose to.

84: AJ(12) AT(12) A9(12) A8(12) A6(12) A5(12) A4(12)
120: A7(9) A3(9) A2(3) K7(9) Q7(12) JJ(6) J7(12) TT(6) T7(3) 99(6) 97(3) 88(6) 87(12) 77(3) 66(6) 55(6) 44(6) 33(3)

So check.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 11-08-2007, 12:53 AM
vmacosta vmacosta is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 2,060
Default Re: Basic River Value Question

[ QUOTE ]
seems like a good time to stove it up...

assuming he makes it to the river with pretty much his whole range, I removed monsters (figure even this player will not player a monster this passive), and removed anything less than KT or so...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

218 games 0.005 secs 43,600 games/sec

Board: 3s 2c 2d 2h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.037% 44.04% 00.00% 96 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 55.963% 55.96% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 99-88, 66-44, ATs-A3s, KJs+, K7s, K3s, Q7s, Q3s, J7s, J3s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, ATo-A3o, KJo+, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 87o }


---



so.... looks like its close (if he pays off any ace and most kings), but probably a check behind

[/ QUOTE ]

basic problem with this stove is that he donks many of the 7x hands on the turn. i think. actually i really don't know what his range is on any street. my sample in this situation is so small. usually he has the deuce and i'm done on the turn anyhow. or i make a -1.999 bb calldown just to make sure.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 11-08-2007, 01:02 AM
Tryptamean Tryptamean is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 1,186
Default Re: Basic River Value Question

yeah, its tough to give a range when he's somewhat unknown, maybe Stellar has some more info about what made him think this guy is passive post flop. That would be helpful because this spot is genuinely close.

Even if we argue to take some 7x hands out, we could just as easily argue to take some Kx hands out.

FWIW, I still think its a check, but I'd probably bet in practice just cuz I love valuebetting A hi unimproved on 3 streets [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 11-08-2007, 01:34 AM
Entity Entity is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: DeucesCracked!
Posts: 15,310
Default Re: Basic River Value Question

[ QUOTE ]
I think he will show up with a pair a surprising amount of the time. We have a read that he is passive pre and post - this means that he is pretty likely to play a hand like 99 like this.

I used this range as an estimate of what he will _call_ a river bet with:



If this is the case, he has 84 combos you beat and 120 combos you lose to.

84: AJ(12) AT(12) A9(12) A8(12) A6(12) A5(12) A4(12)
120: A7(9) A3(9) A2(3) K7(9) Q7(12) JJ(6) J7(12) TT(6) T7(3) 99(6) 97(3) 88(6) 87(12) 77(3) 66(6) 55(6) 44(6) 33(3)

So check.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're underestimating the number of times a Kx hand will call you on this river.

Rob
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 11-08-2007, 01:38 AM
waffle waffle is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,231
Default Re: Basic River Value Question

Any Kx hands are 12 combos as well. (Since we have an A and a K in our hand, all of his non-pair hands are reduced from 16 to 12 combos.)

So if we take the above assumptions and add that he calls KQ-K9, it turns into a bet. KQ-KT and it's breakeven.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 11-08-2007, 02:57 AM
Heisenb3rg Heisenb3rg is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,733
Default Re: Basic River Value Question

This is extremly close because we dont know how showdowny he is or how often he value bets his pairs...

Because its extremly close I think this is a bet for metagame reasons.

You will so frequently be taking the bet, bet, check line with UI ace high, that looking for spots where it looks to the fish "you're bluffing" ace high must be a good thing.

Hes more likely to call you really light in the future, as well as play passivly with his pairs if he suspects youll bet your ace high anyway.

Bad players would be less likely for recognizing the situation for what it is.

Im speculating from a game theory standpoint this is very very likely a bet... so when in doubt, do whats right against the average opponent.

But really, everything above is BS... do it cause its fun betting A hi for value [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] GAMB00l!!
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 11-08-2007, 03:18 PM
elindauer elindauer is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: analyzing hand ranges
Posts: 2,966
Default Re: Basic River Value Question

good analysis, but I think a range of {66-44,AJ-A3,K7,Q7,J7,87,97s,T7s} is more reasonable. Quads, 3s full and overpairs would have probably spoken up, even from a passive player.

Removing these, the range calculator has us as very slight dogs:

There are 171 combinations in this range on this board.

* full house: 87 combos (50.9%)
A7(9) A3(9) K7(9) Q7(12) J7(12) T7(3) 97(3) 87(12) 66(6) 55(6)
44(6)

* trips: 84 combos (49.1%)
AJ(12) AT(12) A9(12) A8(12) A6(12) A5(12) A4(12)


Which would make it seem that checking is best. It's really close though, because with these very mediocre hands, a bad player is almost certainly not going to play the hands the same every time. He'll fold ace high sometimes to your bet. He'll call KQ sometimes. He'll fold 55 once in a while.

Further complicating the situation, even a passive player is going to come alive sometimes and bet the hands in this range. Surely even a passive player will bet his turned 7 on occasion... so you have to discount him having a pair while the ace high hands look solidly in his range.

Figuring out how to discount this stuff is hard, but my experience is that you'll find yourself up against ace high often enough to get value out of a bet. I play in pretty aggressive online games though, where even passive players don't just check call 44-66 on a 332 flop, and where check-calling a turned top pair is also rare. With a read that your opponent really will just check and call all these hands, checking is best.

-Eric
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:53 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.