National Championship

[MyTurn2Raise]

just want to note that sagarin has been way off this year and following his predictor for ATS picks would result in busto

[MyTurn2Raise]

also, why not use the current pinny moneylines to estimate the next game?

[NajdorfDefense]

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also, why not use the current pinny moneylines to estimate the next game?

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ROFLMAO AT 77% win at psu and >80% at Michigan. Can I have that ML?

[insanity31]

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also, why not use the current pinny moneylines to estimate the next game?

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ROFLMAO AT 77% win at psu and >80% at Michigan. Can I have that ML?

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[MyTurn2Raise]

for example, Ohio State is -1000 v Michigan St +740 at Pinny as of this post

that works out to the market saying Ohio State is 88.42% to win the game

given a conditional probability of 5 events, the 4.6% drop in value effects the outcome and would make tOSU 46.4% to go undefeated if the other estimates are correct (which I don't buy)

[TomCollins]

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also, why not use the current pinny moneylines to estimate the next game?

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ROFLMAO AT 77% win at psu and >80% at Michigan. Can I have that ML?

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I agree, just imagine what Morelli will look like against a real defense. Hopefully JoePa won't crap his pants again during the beating that ensues.

[BobJoeJim]

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also, why not use the current pinny moneylines to estimate the next game?

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Because I set up the spreadsheet last week, and I already had the cells set to calculate spreads for this week. It was easier to use those numbers than go through and put in moneylines for all this week's games.

Plus it gives consistency. As long as I'm using Sagarin for future weeks, I might as well use him for this week too. Either you disregard it because you don't trust Sagarin (entirely valid, I *did* say to take these numbers with a large grain of salt), or you don't, but if you're giving these numbers credence, you might as well go all the way and see what Sagarin predicts for this week too.

[MyTurn2Raise]

pinny says Kansas only 61% to win @ Colorado
that difference is HUGE

[BobJoeJim]

Also, the reason why I initially posted this in Sporting Events rather than here is that while I think it's interesting and is great for spurring conversation, I do NOT think it's a useful tool for betting. Obviously, there are a lot of numbers that just look glaringly off, especially in terms of this week's games which we can compare to current moneylines and SEE the difference in. I only cross-posted it because it fit the discussion in this thread well, and I figured that once someone had tossed around numbers that he "put little thought into", I might as well post numbers that are at least based on something concrete... even if it is Sagarin [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

(I initially chose Sagarin's ratings purely because they have the best name recognition, back when this was intended for sporting events. If you really want a laugh, I could post predicted undefeated odds based on my OWN computer rankings, which *really* suck [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

[MyTurn2Raise]

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also, why not use the current pinny moneylines to estimate the next game?

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ROFLMAO AT 77% win at psu and >80% at Michigan. Can I have that ML?

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I agree, just imagine what Morelli will look like against a real defense. Hopefully JoePa won't crap his pants again during the beating that ensues.

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one could say the same thing about Boeckman as Morelli

When Purdue is the best defense a team has faced, their offense is still a question mark