Wongable Teasers for this Weekend

[TomCowley]

My data so far indicates that a 3pt fav should win by 3 more than they should lose by 3.

[trixtrix]

think about the entire post very carefully, he's saying the 3 is worth significantly less to a -8 fav than to a -4 fav

[chaz64]

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[ QUOTE ]
Forgot to add, the second 3 is not worth as much as the first. That is to say, a ~3 pt fav wins by 3 more often than loses by 3.

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do you have data to support this or is this a random guess?

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This is mentioned in SSB. But it should be obvious - favs win more often than they lose.

[RitmoEnElCaos]

Not the results I was expecting to see, but teasing a 3-point favorite 6.5 points (yes, across the zero) looks about break-even.

My book pays 5/6 on a 6.5 point 2-teamer. So break even is 6/11 wins, so each leg needs at least sqrt(6/11) = 73.85% to win. I have 783 examples of a 3-point favorite from 1985 to 2006, and 73.95% of those have covered the 6.5-point teased line.

454 times the home team was favored, and covered the teased line 74.23% of the time. 329 times the road team was favored, and covered the teased line 73.56% of the time.

-Ritmo

[trixtrix]

ding ding ding!

someone who actually bothered to research before speaking..

NOW HUSH