Pretty deep hand early on from WSOP

[betgo]

You could 4-bet allin on the flop, but the minireraise following an UTG raise is almost always an overpair or set. You are 34% against JJ-AA, and I don't know if you can convince him you have that beat often enough.

Initially, I like a flat call better. If villain doesn't have a pair, you should be able to take the pot eventually anyway.

[Pudge714]

I think I shove the river if I choose to bluff it.

[wpr101]

[ QUOTE ]
Problem is, by callin his 3-bet on the flop, you probably did expect him to pay off a value bet if you hit u're OESD. Now that you didn't hit it, you're expecting him to fold to a value bet bluff.

I say 4 bet push flop (crazy, but at least u're representing huge on a rainbow flop). Otherwise, just check/call, check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I forgot something important... when I check raised him he let out a big sigh and was obviously disgruntled by my CR. When he then reraised I thought he might have a set. If this had not happened I would have been more inclined to shove... man would it be hard to pull the trigger on that though.

[wpr101]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I shove the river if I choose to bluff it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I discussed the hand with him later and he said he definetly would have folded the river if I had shoved.

[wpr101]

[ QUOTE ]

Initially, I like a flat call better. If villain doesn't have a pair, you should be able to take the pot eventually anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point especially if villian doesn't really bluff. If I call the flop and it goes check/check on the turn I can often pick up the pot on the river.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I shove the river if I choose to bluff it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Terrible play. You have to be successful a much higher percentage of the time. Plus most people would make a smaller value bet with a big hand.

[wpr101]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I shove the river if I choose to bluff it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Terrible play. You have to be successful a much higher percentage of the time. Plus most people would make a smaller value bet with a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I'm not really a fan of it either.

[Pudge714]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I shove the river if I choose to bluff it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Terrible play. You have to be successful a much higher percentage of the time. Plus most people would make a smaller value bet with a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
What is villains stack to start the hand?
I think a bet of 15k is pretty terrible here. It looks valuey and his range is pretty pegged as an overpair, but people will still talk themselves into a call. I think he pretty much never folds the river to 15k. I think in order to get him to fold you probably need to shove. That doesn't mean shoving > c/f, but I really feel shoving is better than 15k if your shove is enough to cripple villain. Also I get that I would probably always vbet this river, but villian doesn't know that. I would probably never c/r call the flop with a 9, which would peg my range pretty solely as missed draws or flopped sets.

Also I really don't like the flop c/r. Villain range for raising from ep and cbetting three ways is crushing you and you aren't going to fold out many better hands. Lead or c/c

[betgo]

A tight unimaginative player raises UTG and cbets two players on 954,r flop. What does he have? I would say 99-AA, 44-55 and maybe 77-88 and AK/AQ.

So what do we accomplish by checkraising the flop with an OESD? If you 4-bet allin, you are a 2-1 or 3-1 dog if called. The minireraise is almost always QQ-AA or a set. A set isn't folding and a big pair is probably calliing too often.

The bluff on the river scare card isn't believrable and usually doesn't work. If you go allin, it works more often, but it isn't worth the price. The push has to work close to 65% of the time to be profitable.

This hand was played pretty badly by both players. It also illustrates two styles of mediocre play. UTG appears to be a typical readable ABC nit. BB appears to be a typical overaggressive Internet player who automatically makes aggressive plays without looking what he is doing to the pot size, how he will follow up and without making good reads as to what his opponent has or what his opponent thinks OP has.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I shove the river if I choose to bluff it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Terrible play. You have to be successful a much higher percentage of the time. Plus most people would make a smaller value bet with a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Old live players are more scared of big bets than small ones. Don't treat every player you come across like a $109r regular.