Rough spot in Full Tilt 500k

[bigbabyjesus]

About 700 left out of 3000, 450 pay. Haven't been at this table too long, don't have any real reads on these guys. I should be paying better attention but am pretty hungover.

My image should be fairly standard/solid/TAG.

Full Tilt Poker Game #2825614995: $500,000 Guarantee (20943610), Table 104 - 250/500 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:04:35 ET - 2007/07/01
Seat 1: teek_00 (4,720)
Seat 2: JohnnyA24 (14,515)
Seat 3: jabbadahutt (5,595)
Seat 4: Sasha Rosewood (10,745)
Seat 5: caressmedown (9,654)
Seat 6: donthvspds (5,190)
Seat 7: JeffJ_ (25,477)
Seat 8: tbone59102 (18,897)
Seat 9: bigs123 (11,624)
teek_00 antes 50
JohnnyA24 antes 50
jabbadahutt antes 50
Sasha Rosewood antes 50
caressmedown antes 50
donthvspds antes 50
JeffJ_ antes 50
tbone59102 antes 50
bigs123 antes 50
donthvspds posts the small blind of 250
JeffJ_ posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to caressmedown [Td Tc]
tbone59102 calls 500
bigs123 folds
teek_00 folds
JohnnyA24 has 15 seconds left to act
JohnnyA24 folds
jabbadahutt folds
Sasha Rosewood calls 500
caressmedown has 15 seconds left to act
caressmedown raises to 2,500
donthvspds folds
JeffJ_ raises to 12,000
tbone59102 folds
Sasha Rosewood has 15 seconds left to act
Sasha Rosewood folds
Hero?

[timex]

Your getting like 2-1, I'm never folding this even though its almost certainly correct.

[djk123]

seems like a fold. his range is prolly JJ+,AK ; maybe aq

[curtains]

call, and it shouldn't be too close. Im not doing math due to laziness but if you are getting 2-1 you should almost always call in these spots, because you are only 2-1 dog against JJ+/AK+ and there is of course always a chance of seeing 99/88 or having AQ hands thrown in the mix.

[hamnegger]

do you want to put your money in as a 2to 1 dog or fav? pot odds are great but if im calling all my chips off i like being a flip or fav not vice versa. its close if you are hungover and don't feel at your best maybe gamble here to get alot of chips.

[djk123]

[ QUOTE ]
call, and it shouldn't be too close. Im not doing math due to laziness but if you are getting 2-1 you should almost always call in these spots, because you are only 2-1 dog against JJ+/AK+ and there is of course always a chance of seeing 99/88 or having AQ hands thrown in the mix.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea but it's more like 1.9:1 really and i think 88-99 and AQ are pretty unlikely. op's raise looks really strong imo. it's not like villain can have a read on op that op raises limpers light or something. I dunno it's definitely close.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
call, and it shouldn't be too close. Im not doing math due to laziness but if you are getting 2-1 you should almost always call in these spots, because you are only 2-1 dog against JJ+/AK+ and there is of course always a chance of seeing 99/88 or having AQ hands thrown in the mix.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea but it's more like 1.9:1 really and i think 88-99 and AQ are pretty unlikely. op's raise looks really strong imo. it's not like villain can have a read on op that op raises limpers light or something. I dunno it's definitely close.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah they are unlikely but obviously not impossible. Meanwhile the pot odds we are getting are better than what we need, as we don't actually quite need a full 2:1 against the tight ranges like JJ+/AK+ and especially not QQ+/AK+. Meanwhile you simply can't discount the fact that they can have a weaker hand some % of the time, which means a lot.

Also I would have just moved allin PF. 2100 in the pot and we have just 9600 chips. We obviously don't want action, and usually don't want action with the majority of hands we may raise here (like, 88+, AJ+, KQs etc)

[djk123]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
call, and it shouldn't be too close. Im not doing math due to laziness but if you are getting 2-1 you should almost always call in these spots, because you are only 2-1 dog against JJ+/AK+ and there is of course always a chance of seeing 99/88 or having AQ hands thrown in the mix.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea but it's more like 1.9:1 really and i think 88-99 and AQ are pretty unlikely. op's raise looks really strong imo. it's not like villain can have a read on op that op raises limpers light or something. I dunno it's definitely close.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah they are unlikely but obviously not impossible. Meanwhile the pot odds we are getting are better than what we need, as we don't actually quite need a full 2:1 against the tight ranges like JJ+/AK+ and especially not QQ+/AK+. Meanwhile you simply can't discount the fact that they can have a weaker hand some % of the time, which means a lot.

Also I would have just moved allin PF. 2100 in the pot and we have just 9600 chips. We obviously don't want action, and usually don't want action with the majority of hands we may raise here (like, 88+, AJ+, KQs etc)

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm yea i guess the fact that he mite only be doing this with QQ+,AK instead of JJ+,AK helps our cause. Funny thing is if I were actually playing this hand, I'd probably end up talking myself into a call.

[__seth]

if i was the villain here i would definitely be reraising wider than jj+ and ak. i have a lot of chips and i don't see why hero's raise should necessarily be interpreted as super strong - he raised 2 limpers on the button and is not necessarily priced into a call. so if the villain is thinking likewise this swings the decision even more toward a call.

[Soulman]

[ QUOTE ]
do you want to put your money in as a 2to 1 dog or fav? pot odds are great but if im calling all my chips off i like being a flip or fav not vice versa. its close if you are hungover and don't feel at your best maybe gamble here to get alot of chips.

[/ QUOTE ]
So basically, you're making the good old 'there will be more +EV spots down the line' argument?

I'm with curtains here, call. There's definitely a non-trivial chance of villain doing this with AQ,88-99 and other random crap. Wouldn't it rock to have reads or PT stats here OP? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]