Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?

[SuperPokerJedi]

From your stats (16/8) this appears to be a fold

[ActionJeff]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually think you can get your answer here with some math if you assume both players are playing a respectable game.

Peachy is a good enough player that he should know two things. One is that he's putting his opponents in what's most likely a push/fold situation, the other is that its just generally a bad idea to try and push someone off QQ+, and AK preflop. So he's either bluffing preflop for immediate EV (just hoping both players will fold) or he's raising with a good hand he's intending to call a push with. Since a flop is unlikely from his perspective he would need a bluff to win at least 2/3 of the time to be profitable since he's risking 1500 to win just 750. If he feels you have an average 3 betting range you're going to have QQ+ and AKs around 30% of the time and the CO will have something like that around 10% of the time. There's also the chance that someone does something stupid with a hand like 99 or worse. He's probably getting played back at around 40-50% of the time and he needs that number to be 33% or less if the bluff is going to be profitable. I doubt he would have a specific grasp of the numbers but I think you should give peachy credit enough to know that bluffing is normally bad here. So he's only going to have a hand powerful enough to call a push and thats just most likely going to be QQ+/AKs or better which of course makes it a fold for your QQ.

If he thinks your 3 betting range is wider than normal for whatever reason, a bluff could work but it would still be very thin.

Also, obviously if you do fold QQ and AKs here a bluff will show a huge profit, but it just can't be expected that getting QQ and AKs to fold is something peachy would have in mind, since so many players just follow the standard and play them for stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mcnasty,


whats key is peachys read on hero's range pf, and his read on hero's range for 5-bet shoving...

more importantly, in analyzing peachy's play, ur not accounting for the equity of being capable of bluffing here instead of just always having KK-AA, which is pretty huge so i dont think ur analysis describes the situation particularly well


metagame etc
-jeff

[NMcNasty]

[ QUOTE ]

Mcnasty,


whats key is peachys read on hero's range pf, and his read on hero's range for 5-bet shoving...

more importantly, in analyzing peachy's play, ur not accounting for the equity of being capable of bluffing here instead of just always having KK-AA, which is pretty huge so i dont think ur analysis describes the situation particularly well


metagame etc
-jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is though that people are asking for reads and history when the original poster specficially states that there really aren't any. When that happens I think you have to resort to deciding what the standard ranges are for the particular stakes. Here I think the standard 3 bet range is something like 50% AK/JJ+, 25% AJ+/KQ/22-TT, 25% SC/Axs/trash. The standard 5-bet range is pretty much QQ+ and AKs but if anything its wider including AKo. I think Peachy is definitely capable of making a play to foster and aggressive image and is definitely capable of 4 betting as a resteal if he thinks the 3 bettors range is too wide or his 5 betting range is too narrow. If the oop had already played thousands of hands with peachy I would agree that you can't really get an answer mathematically. But without history I think you sort of have to reach an answer based on math and logic rather than emotional states, metagame, and timing issues. I think the only way you can really say my analysis is wrong is if you think peachy is too wild to have any regard for standard ranges or you think my perception of the standard ranges is off.

[NMcNasty]

[ QUOTE ]
From your stats (16/8) this appears to be a fold

[/ QUOTE ]

those stats are way off for peachy

[MezmerizePLZ]

Yea the 16/8 was for the open raiser, not p3achy..

Close spot vs p3achy without reviewing prior history. intuition as AJ said.

[NMcNasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Yea the 16/8 was for the open raiser, not p3achy..

Close spot vs p3achy without reviewing prior history. intuition as AJ said.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I think I mixed up what Ike said there with what was said in another post "peachy is pretty tight and we mostly stay out of eachother's way. she probably views me as very aggressive to overaggressive preflop.".

I just sort of assumed there wasn't a lot of history since they've been avoiding each other and peachy isn't tight but I totally overlooked the part about preflop aggression because that changes everything.

[xorbie]

push seems like the worst option

[El Diablo]

AJ,

"Whats happening is, he is either deciding "this is a good spot to try to win this pot" and 4-betting you with a huge range, or he isnt."

I think a lot of good players often overlook that point.

[n0rthf4ce]

this is peachy--
i think your perception of what I view your image to be is correct. I'm not going to say too much about the hand except that I would not fold QQ in this spot vs me, especially because of what happened a few hands before.

PS I am not female ~_~

[iRock]

ActionJeff's post in this thread is good, as in a vacuum this is an impossible decision. I would prob raise as if i am behind or ahead, id rather have a loose image than a tight one to start a history with a player.