Full Tilt satellite to $500 WSOP Super - pro called me a donk - am i?

[betgo]

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Not arguing with the numbers, just curious -- how do you get the 96%? ICM?

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96% is a guess. The stacks are 16-6-3 for 2 seats. If everyone had an equal chance, you would have 67%. I am pretty sure 90% is low. 96% is an educated guess.

I actually kind of like the call, but it is not at all automatic in this situation.

[Copernicus]

ICM (ignoring blinds) results in 93% with a fold and 85% with a loss, so the break even is 53:47 favorite. AQ is much better than that against a reaasonable range and its an easy call.

[betgo]

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ICM (ignoring blinds) results in 93% with a fold and 85% with a loss, so the break even is 53:47 favorite. AQ is much better than that against a reaasonable range and its an easy call.

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I don't know if those numbers are exactly right, but it agrees with what I thought intuitively.

All the people saying "easy fold" are confusing this with the situation where you are a big stack with a larger number of players left in the satellite.

When there are 3 players for 2 seats, your big stack advantage is somewhat reduced because you have to play mor tight/passive. It is not certain you can fold your way in. Your opponents may be able to keep stealing from you and catching up.

There is a lot to be said for calling and trying to end it right here.

[Village Idiot]

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I don't know if you are a donk, but it is a pretty awful call. I don't care if you have AQs or what. There is no reason for you to play here.

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Are you calling with any hands in this situation ?

[betgo]

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I don't know if you are a donk, but it is a pretty awful call. I don't care if you have AQs or what. There is no reason for you to play here.

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Are you calling with any hands in this situation ?

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I posted this early in the thread. I changed my mind. I think this is a call.

[mackthefork]

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It would appear that folding is correct based on the responses. My question now is at what point do I start playing hands again? When all of our stacks are equal? Some basic strategy here would be very helpful. I have to admit I thought it was a good call before making this post. Now I see that with the blinds as small as they were I could have easily waited for quite some time to play a hand.

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I think it's too early to sit back, but there is no need to get involved in huge preflop pots with AQ either, just chip away at the 6k guy and eventually his head will explode and he will do something retarded, unless he's very good which is fairly doubtful from what I've seen.

Mack

[betgo]

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It would appear that folding is correct based on the responses. My question now is at what point do I start playing hands again? When all of our stacks are equal? Some basic strategy here would be very helpful. I have to admit I thought it was a good call before making this post. Now I see that with the blinds as small as they were I could have easily waited for quite some time to play a hand.

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I think it's too early to sit back, but there is no need to get involved in huge preflop pots with AQ either, just chip away at the 6k guy and eventually his head will explode and he will do something retarded, unless he's very good which is fairly doubtful from what I've seen.

Mack

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It's hard to chip away when you are the big stack. It is easy for the short stacks to take you allin or make other bets you can't call.

[rockin]

I really don't understand why you guys have swung 180 degrees on this from a month or so ago. Very similar situation with Dynasty's post and he had a chance to knock out ONE of TWO players, not to mention in Dynasty's post it was possible that the 2nd shorty could knock out 1st shorty anyway. The only difference here is their holdings. I even prefer Dynasty's situation becase I know I could comftorably fold into a seat were we to lose the hand. Comftorably folding into a seat in this case is not as easy 3 handed facing allin shoves possibly every hand from the shorty's. In both cases I think you go for the knockout blow.

In this case after losing the hand, you will need to re-evaluate on each hand, in Dynasty's case just simply fold in. Link below:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...7411&page=

[Village Idiot]

Not to totally hijack this thread but,
I was at a final table 4 handed where the top 2 get seats to another tourney and 3rd and 4th get nothing.
I have 28K in the SB after posting with blinds at 800/1600 no antes.
BB is the big stack with 39K.
The two shorties have 7K and 2.4K.

Shorties fold and I see A5s.
Normally I'm raising this hand heads up SB vs. BB.
I raise to 2.5xBB.
Big stack immediately comes over the top of me all in and I fold. He is pretty tight and does not resteal.

Should I not even be getting involved with holdings like this is this situation against a bigger stack considering the payout and stacks/blinds ?

[rockin]

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Not to totally hijack this thread but,
I was at a final table 4 handed where the top 2 get seats to another tourney and 3rd and 4th get nothing.
I have 28K in the SB after posting with blinds at 800/1600 no antes.
BB is the big stack with 39K.
The two shorties have 7K and 2.4K.

Shorties fold and I see A5s.
Normally I'm raising this hand heads up SB vs. BB.
I raise to 2.5xBB.
Big stack immediately comes over the top of me all in and I fold. He is pretty tight and does not resteal.

Should I not even be getting involved with holdings like this is this situation against a bigger stack considering the payout and stacks/blinds ?

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Pick on the shorties when you have 2 big stacks and 2 small stacks. Don't tangle with the other big stack especially with garbage like A5s.