Full Tilt satellite to $500 WSOP Super - pro called me a donk - am i?

[betgo]

Given the situation with 3 players for 2 seats, calling may not be that horrible. You have about a 60% chance of ending it right there. If you lose, you have 13K to two 6K stacks and they won't be sure you will fold to them. Eventually, the short stacks could catch up if they keep stealing from you.

On balance though, folding is better. The fact that most people would call doesn't make it correct. Most people play their hand too much rather than the situation. In satellites this is particularly true, since the situation is all important.

[Jurollo]

If it is a Full Tilt pro "in red" then there is added +EV as he gets the buy back for busting the pro. On the whole I think this is a call, if it was the 6k stack I fold, however, I think you are far enough his range to call here and end it.
~Justin

[MrTimCaum]

[ QUOTE ]
If it is a Full Tilt pro "in red" then there is added +EV as he gets the buy back for busting the pro. On the whole I think this is a call, if it was the 6k stack I fold, however, I think you are far enough his range to call here and end it.
~Justin

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoever this "demimoore" is, it's definitely not one of FTP's "red pro's"

[RoundTower]

I think this is a clear call but can't justify it mathematically. Anyone who thinks this is a fold:

What do you think your EV is in the OP's situation with stacks 3k, 6k and 16k and top 2 getting paid the same? What do you think it is with 6k, 6k and 13k? How do you solve this problem assuming equally skilled opponents? I can't solve it.

I guessed you have a 90% chance of winning a seat in the first one (ballpark correct?). Then for a fold to be correct, you need to drop to 70% or lower in the second one assuming a very wide range for the button (this is reasonable?). No way do you have as low as 70% chance of qualifying in the second situation, since the average of all 3 players is 67% and you have more chips than the other two put together.

[MrTimCaum]

I can't read

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a clear call but can't justify it mathematically. Anyone who thinks this is a fold:

What do you think your EV is in the OP's situation with stacks 3k, 6k and 16k and top 2 getting paid the same? What do you think it is with 6k, 6k and 13k? How do you solve this problem assuming equally skilled opponents? I can't solve it.

I guessed you have a 90% chance of winning a seat in the first one (ballpark correct?). Then for a fold to be correct, you need to drop to 70% or lower in the second one assuming a very wide range for the button (this is reasonable?). No way do you have as low as 70% chance of qualifying in the second situation, since the average of all 3 players is 67% and you have more chips than the other two put together.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your math is a little off. You are probably about 96% to qualify if you fold, which would mean you need to qualify 90% if you call and lose for the call to be good. I think this is pretty close.

[RoundTower]

Not arguing with the numbers, just curious -- how do you get the 96%? ICM?

[wrschultz]

I would call here for the 3k, but with blinds this low I think folding in is a very easy option.

[WinBig]

It would appear that folding is correct based on the responses. My question now is at what point do I start playing hands again? When all of our stacks are equal? Some basic strategy here would be very helpful. I have to admit I thought it was a good call before making this post. Now I see that with the blinds as small as they were I could have easily waited for quite some time to play a hand.

[nsj]

Fold?
Really?
Seriously?

Short stack has 12bbs on the button and pushes. I'm in a 3-handed game, look down at AQs, and it's only ~16% of my stack to call.

I'm folding?
Why?

For one, I'm expecting to see Ax or a small pair fairly often here. Why would someone with AK, QQ-AA open-push here? Without getting deep into the math, I think I'm easily 50-60% against his range, and even if I do lose, stacks are 13-6-6 - not exactly a perilous spot for me.