Razz 1$ mtt hand 26

[Praxising]

So, now I've just gone crazy the other way. Except after an eternity I call 6th and then I win. This can't be good. Or is it?

Tournament - Razz - Level II (20/40), Ante 4, Bring-In 6 (converter)

Seat 1: 1,392
Seat 2: 1,491
Seat 3: 1,712
Hero: 1,678
Seat 5: 1,179
Seat 6: 1,576
Seat 7: 1,846
Seat 8: 1,126

3rd Street - (1.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 5: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (9.60 SB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (5.80 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (7.80 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets

River - (9.80 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___calls

Total pot: (11.80 BB)

[RustyBrooks]

Meh, seems OK to me. Your opponent is kind of retarded, but in the good kind of way where even if he has a good hand you're not in bad shape.

The only street I think is debatable is 5th.

So here's the math for 6th st:

You can improve with any A, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 or T. If I counted right, this is 22 outs. It's close to that anyway. You know the value of 18 up cards, so the remaining number of cards is 34. So, you will improve 22/34 times which is more that 2/3 of the time. Your opponent has 2 low cards down, doesn't really matter what they are. He has probably 4 fewer outs than you on average. So 18/34 times, he will improve. There are obviously 4 possibilities in this tree (he improves you improve, he improves you don't, you improve he does, you both don't improve). Only one of these wins you the money: you improve, he does not.
You improve 22/34 = 64%
He does not improve = 48%
So, you will win this pot 64% * 48% of the time, which is about 30% of the time. You're getting almost 9:1 to call 6th so calling is obviously fine. You're not calling 7th UI I hope. And actually if you improve and he bets that's a tough situation.

About 5th: Neither of you has a hand. Actually I don't know. Honestly I suck at situations like this. I'm feeling to lazy to run an equity simulation but I bet it's OK to call here (you're getting 8:2 to call down, I'd be surprised if you're worse than a 4:1 dog)

I haven't really taken the fact that it's a tournament into account, because it's early and you do not have a significant amount of your stack at risk.

I've also been drinkin so someone ought to check my math.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
You're not calling 7th UI I hope. And actually if you improve and he bets that's a tough situation.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I rarely bet with K hi, tho' I did once call with it and won, oddly enough. (I also once won with a pair but it was all checked down.)

Thanks for all this work, Rusty. I wonder if I am doing some subconsciopus tallying that I can't purposefully accomplish...

I am playing that !4 right now and I just made another call like this - a kind of wiing and a prayer bet - I made it and he did bet but I called him.

He had a QJ. I had J9.

Ah - micro trnys!

Have one on me, kid.