3/6 River Decision

[RandomUser]

Villain might also 3-bet with a straight against your board.

Normally, I would cap this, but the fact that he checked on 5th leads me to believe he is tighter than most players.

I think that around 30% of the time he has a full house here, the other 70% he has a straight or flush. With no other history to go on, I guess I would probably cap this and take note of what he has for future reference.

He may have hit the Ad or Kd on the river and think he has the higher flush.

[Jeff76]

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You need villian to have lower flush about 21% of the time to break even on capping.

[/ QUOTE ]It's one bet (since we'll be capping), so this means break even is 50% right?

[Jeff76]

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But assuming split jacks at this point, which is the most likely hand, for him to be ahead he needs to have either a diamond or a ten in the hole.

[/ QUOTE ]He can also have a 9 in the hole, another J, or a Queen. If we consider all 9-Q + diamonds, that's 19 cards out of 38 remaining that he could have along with another J that put us slightly behind. Assuming his kicker is completely random (saying he'll be as likely to call on 3rd with a 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] as the T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]), betting here is breakeven at best. However, starting with a 3 flush fits the action so far as well, so we might really be drawing thin if we are behind. Obviously I didn't count all of this at the table, but that was close to my sense of the situation at the time.

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Granted against his range we're probably only about a 55% favourite, so we're not ahead by THAT much, but in Stud we have to take advantage of small edges like this.

[/ QUOTE ]I thought in Stud most small edges dissapear because the pot size gets so big that most everyone plays correctly anyway? I thought HE was were it's important to push small edges.

I guess my reasoning was: I don't see that we can make villain make a mistake by betting, a free card doesn't really hurt us that much if we are only ever ahead by 55%, but villain can really punish US if we are behind.

[Andy B]

I think the check on fifth was best. It is surprising that the other guy didn't bet. Giving him a free card is only really disastrous if he would have folded to your bet, which will almost never be the case.

Cap the river. Your hand is very well hidden (so well hidden that I missed the fact that you had a flush the first time I read through it), and the other guy will usually be three-betting worse hands. Also, since this is online, you don't open yourself up to a re-raise, so I think you've got a pretty easy cap.

[WhiteWolf]

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The problem is - by checking and letting him gain control, we're allowing him to play optimally. If he has a diamond or a T in the hole, the right move is for him to bet. If he doesn't, the right move is for him to check. I'd rather be betting and forcing my opponent to call hoping for runner, runner than allowing him to dictate how it goes.

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In stud, you should often let the player with the better board take control of the hand. When we check, our opponents will often bet, even if they only have a drawing hand. If we lead, we allow made hands to raise us, and we're forced to call because strong drawing hands will sometimes raise (and check behind UI on 6th). By checking when ahead we will often get that single bet in anyways, and we avoid having to put in two bets when behind.

[docholiday420]

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First of all - I don't like the check on 5th. Allows villain to take control of the pot, take a free card if necessary. I'm betting here.



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I agree completely with that. You should have bet fifth to see if that diamond helped or not. Besides you still have aces with about a 30% chance to make 2 pair. I would have made the bet to see what happened, if he raised me I would have folded and saved possible three extra BB. Four street is an important street to get a read, and on that he got a second diamond. Him checking on fifth is not a bad play on his part if he was first to act. I think he made a flush, and thought checking on fifth and hopefully raise on sixth, but either way it's still two bets. He might have not bet because he feared the bet would scare you out, which is not that bad of a play.

The real mistake is giving him a free card on fifth, with three diamonds. Maybe he doesn't have a flush but four parts and you gave his fifth for free, maybe he is drawing, then you should bet and get some value in the pot so that if he missed you get paid off.

If someone is chasing, and big mistake is thinking to not bet because your bet won't get him out. If I see someone drawing I def, want to get money in the pot. The odds are he won't catch so why not put money in a situation when odds are in your favor, especially since you won't get money from him on seventh unless he makes his hand. Getting someone out is one reason to bet--two other ones is to get information from them and to get value in a pot your ahead on. By checking on fifth, you put yourself in a situation harder to read his hand.


Then he bets into you on sixth, as far as action goes for the river i would have capped with the ace hi straight because I would have read him for a flush too.

Those who think checking was a good play on fifth your welcome to play at foxwoods anytime and give me free cards when I have three to a flush on board. That play can be disasterous. If you move was to checkraise here's a tip on checkraising. The checkraise is a strong move heads up, but if you have the title of aggressor in the hand, which you did with the last raise on third and bet on fourth, and then you check the next on fifth odds are he will check also, at least he should. If you want to check raise then don't bet the small bet on fourth, put some doubt in his head then to that you have two aces, after checkig on fifth he's more apt to bet on fifth than if you bet out on fourth. You're sacrificng the 3 bucks on fourth to extract 12 from him on fifth. Chip Reese makes a very good point of this in supersystem, which is usually how I play, give him some confidence on fourth, and set the trap when the bets are higher. This is for overall how to get the checkraise. You have to give the guy confidence to bet. So again it can be played to ways

Bet 4th +3, check 5th he'll check=3
Check 4th, check 5th he bets 6 raise 6=12

I hope you see the difference in this play, if there is any hand to give a free card it is fourth, not fifth. One bet on fifth equals 2 on fourth and a raise on fifth is four fourth bets.

[Jeff76]

If your post is accurate, then it is clear I do not understand stud as well as I thought I did [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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You should have bet fifth to see if that diamond helped or not.

[/ QUOTE ]I really try very hard to never bet only for information, especially in limit. I just don't see that the information I gain is worth the bets it takes to get it. And of course, there is also the question of accuracy of information as well. If I'm villain and I make a 4flush+pair, I am re-raising here a lot.

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I would have made the bet to see what happened, if he raised me I would have folded and saved possible three extra BB.

[/ QUOTE ]Bet/folding seems really bad here, especially if villain is capable of raising 5th for a free card on 6th.

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He might have not bet because he feared the bet would scare you out, which is not that bad of a play.

[/ QUOTE ]Checking behind with a made flush is risking losing the whole pot by letting ME draw out, and only gains if he thinks I'll check/fold AA. It seems pretty bad to me.

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maybe he is drawing, then you should bet and get some value in the pot so that if he missed you get paid off.

[/ QUOTE ]If we are ahead, it seems to me that the value we get is a fraction of a bet because we're never ahead by much. Conversely, if we are behind we are losing a larger percentage because we're often behind by a lot. Of course, we could fold to a re-raise (as you suggest), but then we risk losing the whole pot with the best hand.

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Those who think checking was a good play on fifth your welcome to play at foxwoods anytime and give me free cards when I have three to a flush on board.

[/ QUOTE ]Do you really think that giving a free card is losing a lot of value if villain was calling anyway, especially when most of the time the bet goes in either way?
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If you move was to checkraise

[/ QUOTE ]No- I was definitely not considering a c/r. I see no reason to try and get an extra bet into a pot where I am at best a slight favorite to win.

Regarding checking 4th, I often do, actually, but in this situation I felt like I caught a good card for my hand and now had a live three-flush that could give me additional outs in case he made a flush or straight. With that I was more comfortable building a bigger pot and tying myself on.

At any rate, you obviously play a lot higher and have more experience than I do, so I question this all very respectfully and am looking for input. If I have it wrong I'd like to know. My approach to Stud is to focus on winning the pot, not squeezing out extra bets. Of course, obviously I like to squeeze out extra bets when I can, or I wouldn't have posted the river question at all, but I feel like checking fifth does not open me up to losing the pot, whereas a bet/folding line does. Of course, I would not have considered bet/folding anyway.

[CJC]

This is an excellent response... I agree fully.

In a live game I might just call as another raise by villian (which you have to call) very likely means you are in trouble... however in this online game where your raise closes the action.. there really isn't a reason not too.

CJ

[RandomUser]

Betting out on 5th lets villain have the opportunity to push you off of your hand.

Are you going to call with naked As at that point, knowing it will cost you 3BB to get to showdown?

And if villain does raise, you have gained no information at all. He could have the flush, he could pair+4flush, he could have hidden set, he could have absolute crap and raising solely on his board.

And if you do call, he can assume that you probably have As up and play accordingly (or, of course, that you don't believe he has a made hand).

It also lets him take control of aggression in the hand and take advantage of whatever cards fall on 6th street.

I win a lot of pots on 5th street raising unmade hands with scary boards simply for the reason that most players would rather abandon their big pair rather than pay an additional 3BB to find out if I was telling the truth or not.

And when they do call my raise on 5th street and I get a scare card on 6th, they will often surrender then as well.