Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play

[Thundercat32]

DVault,

Normally I try and read everyone's posts, but I've read a few and it seems they don't understand the situation.

6 handed it's folded to you, you have pocket 8's likely the best hand, you did exactly what I would of done push. You're heads up with K-J perfect you're 54% to win.

did you make the RIGHT play tournament strategy wise? to me this is an all in or fold spot making a small raise you're not going to call an all in most likely, you don't want to forfeit chips as the blinds are continuing to go up and you're already somewhat short. I'm not folding in this spot. 88 you might not see another hand that good in the next 30, if you're not going to get aggressive when you're the short stack at the table with 88 folded around to you in the SB, when are you going to get aggressive?

I agree with another poster I do not think either of you made a mistake. You certainly did not.

The BB, if I'm him I'm not going to make a habit of making this call but he had a chip stack to work with and he had an opportunity to knock an opponent out of the tournament that is Huge, so I can't fault him for trying to knock you out and win his seat

[d240t]

Both of you made a mistake. You have way too many chips to open push this. He has way too many chips to call this open push. And this would be crappy even if it wasn't a flat payout bubble situation.

Just complete and play poker or 3x raise and play poker.

[d240t]

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his mistake was more egregious; yours was more costly. that make sense?

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+1

[mlagoo]

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[ QUOTE ]
his mistake was more egregious; yours was more costly. that make sense?

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+1

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i dont think this makes any sense

this is poker -- arent mistakes measured by how much they cost us in terms of $EV?

[Black Aces 518]

[ QUOTE ]
DVault,

Normally I try and read everyone's posts, but I've read a few and it seems they don't understand the situation.

6 handed it's folded to you, you have pocket 8's likely the best hand, you did exactly what I would of done push. You're heads up with K-J perfect you're 54% to win.

did you make the RIGHT play tournament strategy wise? to me this is an all in or fold spot making a small raise you're not going to call an all in most likely, you don't want to forfeit chips as the blinds are continuing to go up and you're already somewhat short. I'm not folding in this spot. 88 you might not see another hand that good in the next 30, if you're not going to get aggressive when you're the short stack at the table with 88 folded around to you in the SB, when are you going to get aggressive?

I agree with another poster I do not think either of you made a mistake. You certainly did not.

The BB, if I'm him I'm not going to make a habit of making this call but he had a chip stack to work with and he had an opportunity to knock an opponent out of the tournament that is Huge, so I can't fault him for trying to knock you out and win his seat

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WTF. You know this is a satellite, right? You also know that the top 5 get seats, and the short stack is UTG? Also hero is 4/6 in chips, not the short stack. You said "you're 54% to win, perfect." NO, NOT PERFECT. You were probably 85% to get a seat at minimum to fold. Now you're 54% to win. AWFUL.

[DVaut1]

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WTF. You know this is a satellite, right? You also know that the top 5 get seats, and the short stack is UTG? Also hero is 4/6 in chips, not the short stack. You said "you're 54% to win, perfect." NO, NOT PERFECT. You were probably 85% to get a seat at minimum to fold. Now you're 54% to win. AWFUL.

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Yeah, this really isn't even up for debate, IMO. I'm certain pushing was way wrong here.

[betgo]

Your problem is that you are looking too much at the qulity of your hand and not the situation.

Later on the blinds will get bigger and you will really need the chips you steal from the big stack BB. So steeal then, regardless of your cards.

With 88, you are maybe 50% against his calling range, but you are 33% with a random hand. So what. When you steal, you are really looking not to get called. Steal with an average or average plus hand later on.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,736,861 games 8.391 secs 683,692 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 66.5003 % 65.72% 00.84% { 55+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 33.4997 % 32.69% 00.84% { random }




3,225,980,736 games 4.172 secs 773,245,622 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 68.5332 % 67.69% 00.84% { 55+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 31.4668 % 30.62% 00.84% { K7o }


---

3,184,885,440 games 4.063 secs 783,875,323 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 64.3123 % 62.64% 01.67% { 55+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 35.6877 % 34.01% 01.67% { A2o }


---

1,123,271,424 games 2.016 secs 557,178,285 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 65.8799 % 65.45% 00.43% { 55+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 34.1201 % 33.69% 00.43% { T7s }


---

1,736,276,256 games 2.141 secs 810,965,089 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.5429 % 50.02% 00.53% { 55+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 49.4571 % 48.93% 00.53% { 88 }


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[Black Aces 518]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
WTF. You know this is a satellite, right? You also know that the top 5 get seats, and the short stack is UTG? Also hero is 4/6 in chips, not the short stack. You said "you're 54% to win, perfect." NO, NOT PERFECT. You were probably 85% to get a seat at minimum to fold. Now you're 54% to win. AWFUL.

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Yeah, this really isn't even up for debate, IMO. I'm certain pushing was way wrong here.

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Yeah, I should clarify that my post here was to make sure T'cat was grasping the situation. He was saying others weren't, but it looked to me like he wasn't.

I knew you had figured out/decided that shoving was no good. I do think it's a little excusable because you had seen the big stack fold to raises as you said, so you made an (incorrect) read that he was playing perfectly and grabbed for some chips. I think with your read it at least gets closer, I just don't think you NEED the chips enough to do it. With your read, had, say, UTG doubled to 6500, then I would jam here, b/c you are in more danger of missing, and you have reason to believe that BB will fold any hand.