Good spot for thin value betting? NL25

[Jailblazers]

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP: $27.75
Hero (CO): $25.35
BTN: $24.65
SB: $18.05
BB: $7.90
UTG: $75.60

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG calls $0.25, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($2.85) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, UTG calls $2

Turn: ($6.85) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($6.85) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero ?

Villain is unknown. I think we should bet here because I think he calls here with alot of his flop range which is basically weak aces, small-mid PPs, Jx, and also maybe a QT or QK, while he is folding a missed flush draw. Also, I think most villains would bet somewhere with an ace so that pretty much narrows his range down to hands we beat. Do you think so?

[Dr_Doctr]

Yes, make it small though. I value bet hands like this all the time. It would be exploitable by decent players but how likely is a NL25 unknown to fit that profile?

[hoyasaxa]

a vbet here is perfect imo. obviously fold to a c/r

[Khaos4k]

Your analysis looks pretty good. I bet about 1/2 pot here

[NextMyth]

I like your analysis on the hand but I think its pretty close between check behind and bet $3-3.5.
One reason is I don't think we should discount a weak ace here at all. I see a lot of weak players play it this way and c/c the river.

[Red Shell]

value bettings fine here vs the right type of player. i dont agree with a 1/2 pot+ bet, it needs to be much smaller imo. somwhere between 1/3 - 2/5's

[Gullanian]

I bet $2 and watch him call with a jack

[Geordie Ramone]

I dont know about this, an ace isnt folding, there are now two overs to a smaller pair and the small bet looks so weak you are begging to be raised off the pot.

I might be missing value, bur unless you have villain pegged as calling down with under pairs I would just check behind

[HappyElephant]

i check because the Q makes it harder for him to call with a J and because he never folds his ace no kicker

[Jailblazers]

Does anybody think that a v-bet of $4.50 is good here? My hand looks like a bluff that villain might want to make a hero call with rather than a raise to "get me off my hand."

Am I incorrect to assume that most villains at this level call here with 3rd pair?