Slightly -cEV move to become chip leader. $4 + .40 180sng stars

[Jailblazers]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t7545)
Button (t10950)
SB (t1827)
BB (t4120)
UTG (t2100)
UTG+1 (t13540)
MP1 (t8525)
MP2 (t7630)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t300, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1700</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls t700.

Flop: (t3850) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets t4500</font>, Hero ?

Villain has been loose-passive and there are about 30 people left.

Preflop: I think this steal play is kind of meh...but I figured I could at least isolate the limper if not get him to fold. People were limp-folding so much that I decided to take advantage of it this hand. After button min3bets, it's pretty easy to tell he has KK+ and will likely stack off with it. I called here what do you think?

Flop: I realize that with the money already in the pot and my hand, pushing all-in (about 5800 total) would be -EV chipwise. Also, if you account for the fact that the people in this play horribly, do you jump on this chance to triple up our stack? If I was to win this one, it would catapult me to the FT. But then again, we still have about 20BBs behind to play with if we fold.

[McMelchior]

I pretty much hate your play.

Your PF bluff-into-the-table-chip-leader raise is useless. There's t950 in the pot, and your small raise gives the OR 2.7 : 1 on a call.

Calling the extra t700 against an perceived overpair - and bringing your stack below 20BB ... I guess a case could be made for it, even though I don't think you're going to outflop the re-raiser often enough to make it profitable.

On the flop you can't call. The odds are just not there. If you seriously consider committing your chips here I guess you could open-push, in the faint hope of folding an unlikely AK.

[Sherman]

Mathmatically, it is basically costing you 5845 to win ~10,000 (need antes for exact amount). So you need to have about 37% equity to break even.

You have 34.24% equity against what you think his range is:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.242% 34.24% 00.00% 4068 0.00 { JhTd }
Hand 1: 65.758% 65.76% 00.00% 7812 0.00 { KK+ }

So mathematically, the call costs you ~419 chips.

I think making a call here is defensible. It is very slightly -EV (it is slightly more -EV if he has QQ too, but obv. better if he does this with AK). And winning this pot will be a big advantage for a good player. That is, your chip stack gains major amounts in functional utility. You ought to be able to abuse the bubble as a big chip stack. Something that is often hard to do as a medium chip stack.

So I say calling is fine.

Sherman

[LuckyLloyd]

If you can put QQ in his range this becomes a clear fold.

[PrimetimeUNH]

this looks like pocket 10's or better. fold

[Jon_AK]

possibly the easiest preflop fold you will ever encounter.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
If you can put QQ in his range this becomes a clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.774% 30.77% 00.00% 5484 0.00 { JhTd }
Hand 1: 69.226% 69.23% 00.00% 12336 0.00 { QQ+ }


With QQ in his range we now have an EV of -969.49, or about -1K.

But I am still not sure I agree. The guy is not asking about cEV. We all know it is -cEV. The math is right there in front of us. What we don't know is if it is really -$EV.

The question is, can we make more money in the long run by taking a shot here. If we don't take a shot here, we are likely to have a medium stack on the bubble. Everyone knows that stealing with a medium stack is hard and you are the constant target of steals.

However, if we get a big stack, we can abuse the medium stacks on the bubble. We can cruise ITM, build our chip stack, and make a good run at the FT.

If we lose, we are out.

But how much $EV do we lose when we lose? What is probability of making the top 3 if we don't take the shot here? It really comes down to answering these questions.

You need to estimate your tournament equity (in $, not chips) right now. How much do you expect to make on average with this chip stack at this point in the tournament? Now how much tournament equity do you have if you win in this spot and get up to 15K in chips? Multiply that number by our equity (which is somewhere between 30-34%). Now subtract from that number our current equity in the tournament (calculated before). Is the number still positive? If it is, we should take a shot here.

It is as simple as that. It is not about cEV at this point folks. It is about $EV. It is about why we play the tournament.

Sherman

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
possibly the easiest preflop fold you will ever encounter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Show me the math b/c I don't believe you (unless you are talking about the first time around). We have to call 700 in a pot of 3100. We also have 5800 behind in implied odds b/c villain has turned his hand over.

I'm pretty confident that if we never stick it in on the flop without two pair or better we are correct to call PF.

Sherman

[sharkscopeaholic]

being the chip leader is overrated when the bb is only 300 chips, wait for a better spot i think


edit oh and hes has a hand here almost everytime, he just put half his stack in

[Jon_AK]

[ QUOTE ]

(unless you are talking about the first time around)


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes I mean the first time around... it's obvious that the big stack who is already in this pot is NOT going away, and by making this play, hero is thinking in his head "I better hit a straight" which is the same thought process the other 4/180 donks go through when they get any two sooted cards and hope to hit a flush... -EV all around.