Really want to b/3b bluff this turn, $200 NL

[djj6835]

Villain is ffguitarguy. I know he had least lurks here, he may post here too, not sure. Runs at about 21/18/4.5. He is at a few of my tables and has been playing back at me a decent amount and I really haven't had anything with which to make a stand.

On the flop I think his range is mainly weakish jacks, floats with air, underpairs and maybe sets/AA. I double barrel the turn bc I think he folds a lot of his range and I'm firing a lot of river since he really can't have much here.

His turn raise just seems like he is fos here.

a) he's repping a really small range here. Basically flopped sets and a slowplayed AA. 55 is fairly unlikely since I have a 5.

b) It kind of looks like I'm setting up a river shove so taking the play away from me with a strong hand seems kind of strange.

c)Normally don't use timing tells but he tanked before making the turn raise and his raise size is really weird. He isn't really protecting against anything and it looks like he is giving himself room to fold with this weird mini raise.

Thoughts?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $253.20
Button: $198
SB: $341.35
BB: $221.85

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is UTG with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $7</font>, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($17, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $13</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($43, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $34</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $80</font>
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $253.20
Button: $198
SB: $341.35
BB: $221.85

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is UTG with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $7</font>, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($17, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $13</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($43, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $34</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $80</font>, Hero wants to shove.

[ofishstix]

i havent played him in a while, but i noticed he doesnt really like to fold. that said, i think he's FOS pretty often here for the reasons you've said.

of course a raise of his size also makes it easy for him to get it on the river. id fold b/c i know he doesnt like too, though vs someone you have a better read on i think this would be a good spot for b3b

[djj6835]

So everybody else thinks this is bad or just too read / game flow based to comment. I can also beat 89 of spades fwiw.

[pdoran10]

i think you need to fold here, knowing that you are folding the best hand a decent amount of the time.

If you have a very strong read on him based on history and game flow, i would say go ahead and shove, but its always going to marginal at best.

[pdoran10]

also, id just like to mention that this brings back bad memories of Reynolds XO sitting at all of my tables last night and him raping me postflop.

[ActionDonKK]

i dont think u have enough equity to bluff here, maybe on a turn 3 and with a decent read. (just maybe).

[cs3]

ive played with villain a lot over the past couple weeks and he is never fodling once he raises that turn and gets in half his stack.

and ive never seen him float a flop with complete air, which means pretty much whatever he called the flop with has you beat. i think the worst hands he raises here are like 7sXs, JsXs and both obv have you crushed. 22/77/55 are also very likely - ive seen him flat sets on dry HU flops several times.

i think shoving is pretty bad here vs this villain with so little money left behind.

[Nick Royale]

I'd much rather crai if I'd want to take a stand. You shouldn't 2nd-barrel too much here so he likely views your range as strong.

[rberg]

very likely -ev.
he has to fold here 50% of the time to break even.
if he calls you have very little equity.