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Old 11-05-2007, 07:50 PM
TNixon TNixon is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 616
Default Re: Super extra-de-dooper thin value betting ($50 NLHUSNG)

[ QUOTE ]
I think you put your opponent on a calling range that mostly beats you, though I am not sure I understand your read. IF that I am right then I think betting is negative +ev

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, I think his calling range mostly beats me.

But I'm heavily weighting his range to nothing, and specifically, ace-high nothing. There's not really any concrete evidence that his nothing is ace-high as opposed to something that totally missed and that he couldn't possibly call with, but for whatever reason, my gut was telling me that ace-high was his most likely holding, and I was almost positive he'd call with it, if I bet weak enough. It's really tough to assign percentages though, or I could just do some EV math.

Mostly I just wanted to know if I was a screaming lunatic for even thinking about such a razor-thin value bet. I'm already pretty convinced that I value bet quite a bit thinner than most people, so thin that anybody watching would be convinced I'm making a poor bluff with a weak hand that has a good chance of being best at showdown anyway, but I think this is the first time I've ever considered betting ace high on the end actually thinking I would get called by some worse hands. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Since I ended up just checking, obviously I decided that it was probably lunacy, and maybe there's a fair amount of results-oriented thinking in even asking the question (since he ended up having exactly what my gut was telling me he had), but I thought I'd run the question by everybody.

Thanks for the responses everyone. Pretty much what I expected to see (cbet the flop, donk).

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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